CHICAGO — For the second consecutive year, Earth is poised to experience unprecedented heat, with the global temperature exceeding a 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) rise from pre-industrial levels for the first time, according to the European climate agency Copernicus.
“The persistent nature of the warming trend is particularly concerning,” remarked Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus.
Buontempo emphasized that the consistent increase in greenhouse gas emissions is a significant contributor to the string of record temperatures. He also noted other elements that lead to unusually warm years, such as the El Niño phenomenon — a temporary warming of specific Pacific regions that alters weather patterns globally — along with volcanic activity that releases water vapor, and solar energy fluctuations. However, scientists agree that the long-term rise in global temperatures, transcending these temporary variations like El Niño, signals troubling trends for the climate.
“A powerful El Niño event gives us a glimpse of what our new reality may look like within the next decade,” expressed Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth.
The announcement of potential record-breaking heat follows the recent reelection of Republican Donald Trump, who has previously dismissed climate change as a “hoax” and vowed to enhance oil exploration and production. This news comes just ahead of the upcoming U.N. climate conference, COP29, slated to take place in Azerbaijan. The talks are expected to focus on mobilizing vast financial resources to facilitate a global transition to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, aiming to curtail further warming.
Buontempo clarified that surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold for a single year is distinct from the goal set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit warming to an average of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over a span of 20 to 30 years.
According to a United Nations report released this year, the Earth has already warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) since the mid-1800s, a rise from earlier estimates of 1.1 and 1.2 degrees Celsius. This situation raises alarms, as U.N. officials assert that current greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set by nations worldwide fall short of what is necessary to keep within the 1.5-degree Celsius objective.
This target was established to mitigate the most severe consequences of climate change on humanity, which includes extreme weather patterns. “The heatwaves, storm damage, and droughts we witness today are merely a precursor to greater challenges ahead,” explained Natalie Mahowald, chair of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University.
While exceeding this threshold in 2024 does not necessarily signify a permanent shift in the trend of global warming, “without dedicated efforts, it soon may,” cautioned Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.
Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University, offered an even more dire view, stating, “I fear we have missed the opportunity to stay below the 1.5-degree threshold. The warming is simply too severe.”
Indiana’s state climatologist, Beth Hall, expressed that the findings from Copernicus were predictable but highlighted the importance of understanding climate as a collective global issue rather than a localized problem. “We often focus too much on our personal experiences,” she noted. Reports such as this one represent data from countless locations worldwide that may not directly affect individual communities.
Buontempo reiterated the significance of global data collection, which is amplified by international collaboration, enabling scientists to confidently present findings from the latest report. The Copernicus agency collects its data from extensive measurements obtained from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations across the globe.
He indicated that surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) benchmark this year carries “psychological importance” as nations approach pivotal discussions at the annual U.N. climate summit scheduled for November 11-22 in Azerbaijan.
“The choices we face are ultimately our responsibility, both as individuals and as a society, influenced by our policymakers,” he stated. “I believe that these critical decisions should be grounded in factual evidence and data.”