However, the combination of his strong support for Israel, his call for a swift conclusion to the ongoing conflict in Gaza during his campaign, along with the rising isolationist sentiment within the Republican Party and his unpredictable nature, raise numerous questions about the implications of his second term in this crucial region.
Assuming there are no breakthroughs leading to cease-fires prior to his inauguration, Trump will take office amidst a fierce conflict in Gaza, with Israel continuing its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran show no signs of letting up, particularly against the backdrop of Iran’s involvement through proxy forces in Iraq and Yemen, alongside persistent concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
Trump has expressed a desire for peace in the region, but the specifics of his approach remain unclear.
Throughout his campaign, he has repeatedly promised to restore peace. In a conversation with radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump summarized his stance, saying, “Get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” referring to the situation in Gaza.
The conflict was triggered by Hamas’ attacks on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of over 1,200 individuals in Israel, with additional kidnappings. The subsequent Israeli offensive has reportedly claimed more than 43,000 lives in Gaza, as stated by local health officials who note that more than half of those casualties are women and children.
The ongoing war has created a dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, contributing to Israel’s growing international isolation as it faces scrutiny from global courts regarding potential war crimes. Additionally, this situation has incited protests across U.S. college campuses, stirring debate about America’s role as a principal military and diplomatic ally of Israel.
Efforts from international mediators, including representatives from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, to establish a sustainable cease-fire have yet to succeed. Despite this, Trump has repeatedly urged Israel to “finish the job” in dismantling Hamas, though he has not clarified what this entails. David Makovsky, a director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, raises crucial questions about Trump’s intentions, highlighting the ambiguity surrounding whether “finish the job” allows for continued military action or signals a need for peace.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed optimism regarding a Trump administration more favorable to Israel.
The uncertainty lingers on how Trump will interact with Netanyahu, who has been a staunch ally. During Trump’s previous term, he supported Netanyahu’s hardline stances, including the abrupt withdrawal from the agreement designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and endorsed the annexation of the Golan Heights. His administration also facilitated normalization agreements between Israel and four Arab nations, a significant achievement for Netanyahu, who now aims to replicate that success with Saudi Arabia.
The relationship between the two leaders soured after Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden following the 2020 elections, a move that Trump viewed as a betrayal. However, they have since reconnected, with Netanyahu visiting Trump in Florida this year.
Under Biden’s administration, the U.S. has occasionally criticized Israel and delayed certain military supplies due to actions taken in Gaza. Netanyahu likely hopes that a Trump comeback will ease constraints on Israel’s military pursuits.
Additionally, a stronger U.S.-Israel relationship under Trump could enhance Netanyahu’s standing domestically. “He has the most pro-Israel record of any president,” remarked Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S.
Nevertheless, both Trump and Netanyahu have not articulated a concrete vision for Gaza in the aftermath of the ongoing conflict. Netanyahu’s far-right government has made it clear that anything less than the complete dismantling of Hamas could jeopardize his leadership, and they favor resettling Gaza while expressing confidence in a Trump presidency.
The Biden administration has preferred that the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, oversee Gaza, an idea Netanyahu has firmly rejected. Trump has also not put forth a specific postwar plan, albeit suggesting that Gaza could be developed into a luxurious destination.
Former Palestinian advisor Diana Buttu expressed skepticism about Trump’s commitment to Palestinian interests, predicting a troubling future given the lack of a robust U.S. strategy for Gaza.
Amidst the violence, Israel is currently engaged in confrontations with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where the militant group has launched numerous attacks resulting in casualties and displacements. Trump, who has familial ties to Lebanon, recently expressed his intentions to alleviate the suffering there if he regains the presidency.
However, a critical question looms: will Trump prioritize a strong defense for Israel against Iran, or adhere to his “America First” policy? Historically, the United States has played a pivotal role in the region, providing military support and mediating numerous conflicts.
With U.S. military assets already deployed to assist Israel, any significant offensive against Iran’s nuclear program may demand a more substantial U.S. military involvement.
Accusations regarding Iranian cyber activities and possible threats to Trump and his administration could further influence his attitudes towards Iran.
While Trump has indicated he will concentrate on domestic issues, the Middle East may become an exception. He possesses considerable backing from evangelical Christians who staunchly support Israel, alongside his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who was a key advocate during Trump’s initial term.
Experts predict that Trump’s decisions will largely depend on his instinct rather than clear strategy, leaving uncertainty to characterize his potential policies concerning the Middle East.