WASHINGTON — As the results remained inconclusive on Tuesday night, the 2024 presidential election revealed the profound divisions within the nation. Candidates maneuvered through a shifting political landscape influenced by gender dynamics and class structures while facing the persistent threats of misinformation and potential violence.
Current divisions echo those of the 1968 election, which was marked by racial tensions and the Vietnam War. The implications of this election are significant, perhaps more so than first meet the eye.
The United States is on the brink of potentially electing its first female president, Vice President Kamala Harris, or witnessing a former president with a felony record, Donald Trump, return to office. Trump’s resilience amid tumult, largely of his own design, has surprisingly led to minimal repercussions for his political career thus far.
Votes are still being tallied nationwide, yet early analysis showcases some key insights:
A new leader will take over a country riddled with divisions.
Regardless of whether Harris or Trump sits at the helm, the 47th president will inherit a country marked by growing political and cultural rifts, alongside a citizenry filled with trepidation.
An extensive survey known as AP VoteCast, which engaged over 110,000 voters across the country, indicated that roughly four out of ten voters prioritized the economy and job availability as the foremost issue facing the nation. Approximately two out of ten identified immigration — a cornerstone of Trump’s platform — as their chief concern, while one in ten pointed to abortion, a critical aspect of Harris’s campaign.
Moreover, in a testament to the peculiarity of this election, around one in four Trump supporters stated that assassination attempts against him deeply influenced their voting choice.
When voters reflected on what drove their decision, nearly half highlighted the future of democracy as their paramount concern. This sentiment transcended party lines, with approximately two-thirds of Harris supporters and one-third of Trump voters also citing democracy’s future as the most influential factor in their choices. These insights reflect the complexities and tensions of the current political climate uniquely characterized by the Trump presidency.
Considering the events since Trump’s 2020 loss, including the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, as Congress certified the Democratic victory by Joe Biden, it’s not surprising that sentiments surrounding democracy have dominated voter concerns. Trump, just days before Election Day, provocatively suggested he should not have vacated the White House, while Harris labeled him a “fascist” consistent with other critics, including former high-ranking officials from his administration.
Meanwhile, Trump countered by painting Harris with similar accusations, dubbing her a “communist” and leveraging his ongoing legal struggles to portray Democrats as a genuine “threat to democracy,” while reiterating unverified claims of widespread electoral fraud.
Concerns about electoral integrity remain—spurred on by misinformation.
In the final stretch of the election, Trump aggressively promoted unfounded allegations regarding the election’s integrity, suggesting he could only lose if there was cheating. He even stirred suspicion on social media regarding rampant fraud in cities like Philadelphia, without providing any credible evidence.
Despite Trump’s assertions, there is no substantial evidence indicating significant electoral fraud during either the current or the previous election cycle. A diverse cadre of governmental and industry experts, many of whom are Republicans, deemed the 2020 election as “the most secure” in U.S. history.
Simultaneously, a misinformation campaign propagating unfounded claims of election fraud proliferated across online platforms, leading the FBI to issue a warning about the misuse of its name in false election-related videos, including one falsely accusing prison officials in multiple states of colluding to rig votes.
A new political landscape emerges with reshuffled coalitions.
Historically, white, educated voters in urban centers leaned towards the Republican Party, while working-class white families, particularly those in union jobs, formed a significant segment of Democratic support. Black voters remained a fundamental base for the Democratic Party, effectively drawing Latino voters and young people alongside them.
However, the dynamics have shifted significantly under Trump’s influence, resulting in a transformed presidential battleground map. States like Florida and Ohio, once key battlegrounds, now strongly favor Republicans. Meanwhile, as votes continue to be counted, states in the Great Lakes region such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin remain competitive. The Southern Sun Belt state of North Carolina, traditionally a Republican stronghold, also remained closely contested.
Throughout the fall, Trump claimed expectedly higher support from Black and Latino men than Harris typically garners, while Harris sought to reach out to more educated voters, including moderate Republicans who may feel alienated by Trump. The potential changes to the party dynamics reveal that traditional coalitions no longer guarantee electoral success as they once did.
Differentiated voting patterns based on gender illuminate deeper divides.
This election marks the first presidential race following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which curtailed the national right to abortion. Additionally, it’s notable for a Republican candidate attempting to appeal to male voters via a hypermasculine campaign strategy.
Data from AP VoteCast highlights an anticipated substantial gender gap, with women primarily supporting Harris and men gravitating towards Trump. Approximately one in ten voters cited abortion as a pivotal issue, illustrating its growing importance after being a lower priority four years earlier.
About 25% of voters identified abortion policy as the single most critical factor determining their vote, with nearly half acknowledging it as an important consideration, albeit not the prime one.
Women have consistently leaned Democratic in recent elections while men have shifted Republican; however, the stark gender divide underscores the profound fragmentation of the American electorate.
The financial influence of billionaires in politics is ever prominent.
Elon Musk, one of the wealthiest individuals globally, became a notable backer for Trump during the election’s closing phase. His acquisition of Twitter, rebranded as X, appears to have further solidified his political influence. Musk invested millions of dollars into grassroots initiatives designed to bolster Trump’s voter turnout, while Trump has signaled intentions to incorporate Musk into his potential future administration, implying a significant role in federal regulatory frameworks.
On the Democratic front, financial heavyweights like Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg reportedly each funneled $50 million into a pro-Harris super PAC, further highlighting the critical role of campaign financing in shaping political outcomes in the contemporary landscape.