SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — On Tuesday, Tropical Storm Rafael moved toward the Cayman Islands and is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it continues its path toward Cuba.
As of early Tuesday, the storm was approximately 105 miles (170 kilometers) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, boasting maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph) and moving northwest at a speed of 13 mph (20 kph), according to details from meteorological officials in Miami.
Meteorologists forecast that Rafael will likely become a hurricane while traversing the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands, experiencing further strengthening prior to making landfall in Cuba.
The storm is predicted to approach Jamaica early Tuesday and will be near or possibly over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night, eventually reaching western Cuba by Wednesday.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and several provinces in Cuba, including Pinar del Río, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning is active for Jamaica and additional Cuban provinces such as Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, and Ciego de Ávila. Areas including Camagüey, Las Tunas, and the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to the vicinity of Channel 5 Bridge, along with Dry Tortugas, are under a tropical storm watch.
Current meteorological assessments suggest that the storm is in a highly favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, which is likely to support its strengthening.
As a preventative measure, officials in the Cayman Islands have closed schools and government facilities, urging residents to make necessary preparations. Jamaica took similar precautions, as the storm’s outer bands impacted the island late Monday.
Rafael is on track to make its closest approach to Cuba on Wednesday, where authorities have issued evacuation orders for around 37,000 residents in the far eastern region of Guantanamo due to impending adverse weather conditions.
Cuba is still in recovery mode from Hurricane Oscar, which struck the eastern parts of the island about two weeks prior, resulting in at least six fatalities and causing widespread power outages.
Forecasters have indicated that Rafael is set to bring substantial rainfall across the western Caribbean, which may lead to flooding and mudslides. Expected rainfall totals range from 3 to 6 inches (7 to 15 centimeters), with some localized areas in Jamaica and parts of Cuba potentially receiving up to 10 inches (25 cm).
Heavy precipitation is anticipated to eventually track north into Florida and neighboring regions of the southeastern United States later in the week. Additionally, isolated tornadoes could form over the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida mainland on Wednesday.
Rafael marks the 17th named storm of the current hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has projected that the upcoming 2024 hurricane season will likely see an above-average amount of activity, forecasting between 17 and 25 named storms, including as many as 13 hurricanes and four of those classified as major hurricanes.
To put it in perspective, an average Atlantic hurricane season generally yields 14 named storms, with around seven reaching hurricane status and three being categorized as major hurricanes.