Los Angeles has witnessed a slow decline in Republican presence over the years, yet it now finds itself at the center of a fierce political showdown. This battleground comprises several critical U.S. House seats, which might play a significant role in determining which party takes control of the chamber in the upcoming elections.
Democrats have established a stronghold in California, dominating all statewide offices and maintaining a substantial majority in the Legislature and congressional delegation. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one, with the last Republican victory in a U.S. Senate race dating back to 1988.
Interestingly, conservative strongholds still exist as Republicans currently occupy 12 out of California’s 52 House seats. This year, approximately six races are seen as toss-ups, particularly in those Republican districts that were won by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
The outcome of these critical races could influence the House’s overall balance since the current tally shows 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats, with three vacancies. Two years prior, California played a pivotal role in helping Republicans secure a majority.
The upcoming election occurs against a backdrop of heightened voter anxiety fueled by inflation, escalating housing costs, and a persistent homelessness crisis. Surveys indicate a majority of voters feel the state is moving in the wrong direction.
In one notable race, Rep. Mike Garcia, a former Navy pilot, aims to defend his seat north of Los Angeles in a district that leans Democrat. Garcia, who has managed to defy expectations in an area with an 11-point Democratic registration margin, is contending against Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff garnering significant backing from national Democratic entities.
Garcia’s district stretches through suburban and high desert areas, where he previously campaigned against California’s liberal policies. His opponent, who also has experience as the former CEO of Virgin Galactic, asserts his business expertise could provide solutions to pressing issues. Whitesides has criticized Garcia’s stance on abortion, labeling him an extremist, while Garcia has clarified that he does not support a national abortion ban and advocates for existing California laws.
In another competitive district, the 47th, located in the surf-active Huntington Beach area, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter has stepped aside to pursue a U.S. Senate seat. Scott Baugh, the Republican who narrowly lost to Porter in 2022, is trying again, facing off against Democratic legislator Dave Min. Orange County, once a bastion for conservative politics during the Reagan era, has become increasingly diverse and leaned Democratic, making this seat a top priority for national Republicans.
In a closely watched race, Rep. Ken Calvert, California’s longest-serving Republican, is seeking re-election in the 41st District, where he narrowly defeated Democrat Will Rollins two years prior. Rollins is once again contesting the seat, which is nearly evenly divided between party registration. With significant support from high-profile Democrats, he aims to capitalize on Calvert’s long-standing career and perceived alignment with Trump.
Rep. David Valadao has emerged as a noteworthy figure in the predominantly Democratic Central Valley’s 22nd District, where he has held onto his seat despite heavy registration disadvantages. He faces Democrat Rudy Salas, who previously attempted to unseat him. Valadao emphasizes bipartisan cooperation and water security for agriculture in his campaign.
Another rematch is set in the Central Valley’s 13th District, where Republican Rep. John Duarte is pitted against Democrat Adam Gray, whom he narrowly defeated in 2022. Both candidates are promoting their bipartisan credentials, addressing crucial local issues such as inflation and water supplies. Gray, a former legislator, is particularly vocal about improving infrastructure and renewable energy.
In the 45th District, which has a significant Asian American population, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel faces a challenge from lawyer Derek Tran. Steel, a South Korean immigrant, has previously won twice, but this election is marked by contentious claims from both campaigns. Steel has taken strong stances against tax increases and emphasized her support for Israel, while Tran has raised concerns over potential threats to abortion rights and the dangers posed by a possible Trump presidency. This race is being closely monitored for insights into Asian American voter preferences amid a climate of heightened political tension.