OMAHA, Neb. — On November 5, Nebraska residents will head to the polls to fill the state’s three U.S. House of Representatives seats, with particular attention on the competitive race in the Omaha-focused 2nd District. The outcome here could have significant implications not only for local representation but also for the presidential race.
In a repeat of their 2022 contest, Republican incumbent Don Bacon is running against Democratic state Senator Tony Vargas. According to recent surveys, the race appears to be very close in this district, which is known for its diverse demographics and political beliefs. Both candidates aim to present themselves as pragmatic leaders, seeking to move away from extreme partisan viewpoints.
The 2nd District has a history of tight races, exemplified by Bacon’s narrow victory over Vargas in the last election, where he secured 51% of the vote. Moreover, this district has previously shown support for Democratic presidential candidates in a predominantly Republican state. Notably, it awarded its electoral vote to Barack Obama in 2008 and to Joe Biden in 2020.
In this year’s contentious presidential race, each electoral vote has gained significant attention, especially given the tight margins predicted. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could potentially benefit from Nebraska’s unique system, where the winner in each congressional district receives one electoral vote. This twist has prompted substantial investments from Harris and her supporting Democratic groups in campaign ads and outreach in the Omaha area, reflecting a strategic focus on securing this critical electoral vote. Conversely, Trump’s campaign and allied groups have invested less, having previously attempted—unsuccessfully—to push for a change to a winner-take-all electoral system.
Vargas is hopeful that he can capitalize on enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket, which includes vice presidential hopeful Tim Walz, a Nebraska native. With over a third of the district’s electorate identifying as Democrats, Vargas aims to not only unite this base but also appeal to the nearly 30% of voters who identify as independents or support third parties, including some Republicans disenchanted with Trump.
To reach these target groups, Vargas’ campaign advertisements have focused on issues that resonate with moderate and conservative voters, such as immigration reform, tax cuts for the middle class, and public safety.
Bacon, on the other hand, is positioning himself as a centrist on ads to attract voters beyond his Republican base. Nevertheless, he carefully treads the fine line in this swing district, frequently leveraging social media to maintain support among Republican constituents, highlighting his firm stance on issues like backing Israel amidst its conflict with Hamas and his opposition to a bipartisan border security measure.
In Nebraska’s 1st District, Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Flood is anticipated to win against Democratic challenger Carol Blood. Flood initially took office in a June 2022 special election following the resignation of former GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry. This campaign has seen Flood adopt a more conservative approach, intensifying his support for Trump and accusing Democrats of contributing to the immigration crisis.
Blood, a state lawmaker who served alongside Flood in the legislature, is counting on mobilizing support from women and voters frustrated with Republican stances on abortion and Trump.
Meanwhile, in the remote 3rd Congressional District, Republican Congressman Adrian Smith is expected to easily secure his 10th term against Democrat Daniel Ebers, a farmer from Overton. Historically, voters in this predominantly rural district have expressed strong support for Smith, who is one of Congress’s most conservative members. With Smith successfully winning his last three elections by approximately 80% of the vote, this contest shows little sign of changing.