Former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in election betting markets narrowed significantly over the weekend.
Harris even took a slight lead in one of the five major markets, as bettors reacted to positive recent polling for the Democrat, including a surprising poll showing her ahead in traditionally red Iowa.
Key Betting Market Shifts
- Election Betting Odds Tracker: Tracking data from five major betting platforms, Trump currently holds a 54.6% chance of winning in November, compared to 45% for Harris. This marks a substantial shift from last week, when Trump had a solid lead at 63%, with Harris at 36%.
- PredictIt: The gap has narrowed most significantly here, with Harris now leading slightly, at 55 cents per share (approximately a 55% chance of winning) compared to Trump’s 51 cents.
- Kalshi: Following a recent federal court ruling allowing continued election betting, Kalshi’s bookmakers give Trump a modest edge of 54% to 46%.
- Polymarket: The crypto-based betting platform, often cited by Trump and Elon Musk, still shows Trump as the favorite, with a 58% probability of victory to Harris’s 42.2%. However, this represents a notable shift from the 65-35 advantage Trump held as recently as Thursday.
Though Trump remains the favorite on most platforms, the tightening odds reflect growing uncertainty in the final days before Election Day.
