TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — The upcoming election in Florida will be a critical indicator of whether the state will uphold its status as a Republican stronghold or if Democrats can harness growing support for abortion and recreational marijuana initiatives, alongside the fresh enthusiasm brought by Vice President Kamala Harris.
Historically, Florida has been viewed as a pivotal swing state. However, after former President Barack Obama’s two victories, the dynamics shifted with Donald Trump securing a narrow win in 2016 and a more decisive one in 2020. In 2022, the Republicans dominated all five statewide offices, resulting in significant margins of victory.
Despite this Republican dominance, significant attention is now focused on proposed constitutional amendments aimed at safeguarding abortion rights and potentially legalizing recreational marijuana. These initiatives have sparked considerable financial investments in advertising from both sides, with Democrats banking on these measures to increase voter turnout. Their goal is to mitigate Trump’s chances of a third consecutive win in Florida, while also contesting U.S. Senator Rick Scott’s bid for another term.
Rick Scott’s Senate seat is the only statewide office up for election. He faces a challenge from former Democratic U.S. Representative Debbie Murcasel-Powell, although the race is mainly overshadowed by the presidential campaign and the pressing ballot questions on abortion and marijuana.
Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried expressed that even if Trump and Scott emerge victorious, the election will still be regarded as a success if the proposed amendments pass, alongside possibly flipping enough legislative seats to diminish the Republicans’ supermajority. Fried highlighted the notable losses Democrats faced in 2022, suggesting that many had not anticipated reaching this point in the current election cycle, where there’s perceived competitiveness in the polls.
Nevertheless, the pathway to success remains steep for the Democrats. Supporters of these amendments need to secure at least 60% approval from voters, and there is a substantial amount of funding directed against them, which could sway public opinion. Florida political strategist Jamie Miller noted that while amendments can triumph in the absence of significant opposition, their chances diminish when they face organized resistance.
Miller further indicated that Democrats appear to be motivated by opposition to candidates like Trump and Scott rather than excitement for their own party’s contenders. He acknowledged the potential for backlash against these Republicans; however, he doubted whether that sentiment would be sufficient to turn the tide in a state as large and diverse as Florida.
Scott, who has previously been elected governor twice with less than 50% of the vote, notably won his last contest against Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by a slim margin of just 0.2 percentage points. The political landscape has altered since then, evidenced by Republicans currently holding a one-million voter advantage over Democrats in the state. Scott, a wealthy political figure, has invested millions of his own funds into this campaign, drawing distinctions from Murcasel-Powell, who has struggled to garner attention, particularly as national Democratic funding only arrived late in the campaign.
Although Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is not on the ballot, he actively campaigned against both amendments, employing state resources in the effort. The Agency for Health Care Administration even initiated a website and aired advertisements providing information on abortion, while the Department of Health sought to prevent local stations from airing pro-amendment commercials.
The proposed abortion amendment aims to secure women’s rights to abortion until the fetus reaches viability outside the womb. Currently, Florida enforces a six-week abortion ban—often before many women discover they are pregnant. In addition, voters, who previously endorsed medical marijuana in 2016, are being asked to support the legalization of recreational marijuana. This campaign has received backing from the marijuana industry, which has invested millions while DeSantis has consistently criticized the initiative during state functions.
Though competition is limited among Florida’s 28 congressional seats, there is at least one anticipated new member in Congress. Former Senate President Mike Haridopolos is favored to succeed retiring Republican Representative Bill Posey, competing against Democrat Sandy Kennedy in a strong Republican district.
Overall, Republicans are likely to retain solid control over the Legislature, but Democrats view any progress in flipping seats to weaken the GOP’s supermajority in both chambers as a significant achievement. One such race to watch is in the district of Republican Senator Corey Simon, where he faces a challenge from prominent civil rights attorney Daryl Parks, a former partner of well-known civil rights lawyer Ben Crump.