CHISINAU, Moldova — Octavian Ticu, a historian and politician, reflects on the significant moment of the Soviet Union’s dissolution during the early 1990s. This monumental shift allowed him to emerge as one of Moldova’s first amateur boxers, competing at the Olympic level. “It was a joyous occasion for me,” says the 52-year-old as he prepares for a workout in Chisinau’s boxing gym. “I took part in the Atlanta Olympics in 1996… Had I stayed in the Soviet Union, that plan would have remained unrealized.”
However, Ticu notes that more than thirty years after winning independence, Moldova faces a hybrid war from Russia that utilizes propaganda and misinformation tactics, creating turmoil within the country. In a similar vein to Ukraine and Georgia, this former Soviet state aims for European Union membership but constantly navigates the geopolitical tension between Moscow’s influence and Western aspirations.
“The presence of Russian propaganda has persisted for 30 years since independence,” Ticu emphasized, noting that he has authored numerous works detailing Moldova’s history.
In a closely contested national referendum on October 20, the citizens of Moldova narrowly voted, with 50.35% supporting a path to EU membership. Unfortunately, this decision was overshadowed by accusations of a vote-buying scheme allegedly backed by Moscow. On the same day, incumbent pro-Western President Maia Sandu secured 42% of the votes in her presidential election but fell short of an outright majority. This Sunday, she is set to face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general with pro-Russian ties, in a runoff regarded as a pivotal geopolitical choice.
A recent poll by iData suggests the runoff race is tight, with a slight edge toward Sandu, contingent on the support from Moldova’s substantial diaspora. The presidency in Moldova holds considerable power in foreign policy and national security areas.
Following the recent voting events, Moldovan authorities revealed that an elaborate vote-buying operation was allegedly organized by Ilan Shor, an oligarch in exile who resides in Russia. In 2023, he was convicted in absentia for fraud and money laundering. Prosecutors claim recipients received over $39 million through an internationally sanctioned Russian banking channel, aiding a reported 130,000 voters in the lead-up to the elections. Shor, however, has denied any allegations against him.
According to Ticu, the activities of Shor’s associates, labeled as a “government-in-exile,” are concerning. “They come from Moscow, armed with significant funds, and they move about freely,” he lamented, having previously run for president as a long-shot candidate. He suggested that it was “evident” the electoral process was compromised. Among the 11 candidates in the first round, he stood as the only one endorsing Sandu for the runoff.
Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, which declared independence after a brief conflict in the early ’90s, allows its residents to vote in Moldova’s elections. This territory poses a source of tension, particularly with Russian troops stationed there amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Ticu expressed grave concerns, cautioning that should Russian forces advance to Odesa, they could then reinforce their presence in Transnistria, ultimately resulting in Moldova’s occupation.
In Gagauzia, a Moldovan autonomous region where minimal support for the EU was displayed, a doctor was taken into custody for purportedly pressuring elderly residents to vote contrary to their beliefs. Authorities reported collecting substantial evidence, including financial transactions linked to the same sanctioned Russian bank.
In efforts to combat corruption, officials have executed numerous raids, resulting in the seizure of over $2.7 million in cash. On Thursday, prosecutors conducted a search of a political party headquarters, announcing the investigation of 12 individuals suspected of incentivizing voters to back specific presidential candidates. Additionally, a criminal case has been initiated involving 40 employees from different state agencies linked to electoral bribery.
Instead of achieving the substantial support Sandu anticipated, the outcomes of both elections exposed vulnerabilities within Moldova’s judicial system to protect democratic integrity. This failure has prompted the pro-Moscow opposition to challenge the legitimacy of the electoral results. Igor Dodon, leader of the Party of Socialists and former president with close ties to Russia, publicly refused to acknowledge the referendum outcome, labeling Sandu as a “dictator in a skirt” determined to cling to power at all costs.
Sandu herself recognized that both the referendum and election faced unprecedented instances of fraud and foreign interference. She termed this meddling a “despicable assault” against Moldova’s sovereignty and warned, “If the judiciary remains oblivious to the sale of the country, Moldova’s future will face dire threats for decades to come.”
Being one of the poorest nations in Europe, Moldova has also grappled with soaring inflation since the onset of the war. Tatiana Cojocari, a foreign policy expert at the Chisinau-based think tank WatchDog, indicated that many citizens could fall prey to electoral malfeasance for small bribes.
“For Russia, amassing resources for exploitation is crucial. It breeds chaos—both informationally and politically,” Cojocari explained, noting a return to Cold War tactics, now adapted for the age of social media.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova sought EU membership and was granted candidate status in June that year. In the summer of 2024, discussions for membership are anticipated to commence, a development that displeased Moscow and soured bilateral relations.
Moldovan authorities consistently accuse Russia of executing an extensive hybrid war strategy, encompassing disinformation campaigns, support for pro-Russian protests, and voter manipulation designed to disrupt elections across the nation. Russia, however, has denied any interference.
Social media has emerged as a vital tool for the dissemination of Russian propaganda within Moldova, according to Andrei Rusu, a media analyst at WatchDog. “One of the largest falsehoods is the notion that if Moldovans align with the EU, they will engage in conflict with Russia. They will purportedly lose their traditional values or be coerced into adopting LGBT ideologies,” he pointed out.
Ticu noted that many who experienced life in the Soviet Union often struggle to recognize the deceptive narratives around the EU and the West, further compounded by the challenge of distinguishing between authentic and AI-generated content, especially concerning figures like Sandu.
Recently, platforms such as Meta and Telegram have removed numerous fake accounts propagating anti-EU and pro-Russian sentiments. Nevertheless, experts tracking Moldova’s political landscape assert that Moscow’s primary objective may focus on the upcoming 2025 parliamentary elections, with declining support for the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity indicating a potential loss of its legislative majority in the 101-seat parliament.
“We are already anticipating the parliamentary elections, expecting to witness revised strategies and tactics,” Cojocari commented. “This government may struggle to maintain its parliamentary majority.”
Reflecting on these developments at the boxing gym, Ticu urges for enhanced efforts to counter foreign intervention to prevent a “hybrid governance” situation with pro-Russian elements gaining prominence.
“Appropriate laws are in place, yet their execution remains lacking,” he remarked. “Putin’s ambitions are not to wage war in Moldova but to demonstrate to Europe that the policies of European integration can fail.”
