The upcoming NFL matchup on Sunday features the Indianapolis Colts (4-4) visiting the Minnesota Vikings (5-2) at 8:20 p.m. EST, airing on NBC. The Vikings are favored by 5½ points according to BetMGM odds. Both teams present promising records against the spread, with the Colts at 7-1 and the Vikings at 5-2. Historically, the Colts have the upper hand in their series record against the Vikings, boasting an 18-8-1 lead. In their last encounter, the Vikings narrowly triumphed over the Colts with a score of 39-36 during overtime on December 16, 2022.

In their previous games, the Colts faced a setback against the Texans, losing 23-20, while the Vikings suffered a defeat to the Rams, concluding at 30-20. Analyzing the teams’ offensive capabilities, the Colts rank 17th overall, with their rushing game at 11th, passing at 21st, and scoring at 19th. On the defensive side, they currently sit at 28th overall, with their rush defense at 30th, pass defense at 24th, and scoring at 13th. Conversely, the Vikings rank 19th in overall offense, 22nd in rushing, 17th in passing, and 7th in scoring. Defensively, they are 18th overall, 3rd against the run, 30th against the pass, and rank 9th in scoring defense.

A player to watch for the Colts is running back Jonathan Taylor. Returning from a three-game absence due to a sprained ankle, Taylor showcased his ability last week by rushing for 105 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts against the Texans. His performance has been more reminiscent of his All-Pro season in 2021 compared to recent years impacted by injuries, and he will encounter a Vikings defense that has shown vulnerability against the run in recent games versus the Rams and Lions.

For the Vikings, left tackle Cam Robinson stands out. Recently traded from the Jaguars to fill the void left by the injured standout Christian Darrisaw, Robinson, an eighth-year veteran, is making preparations to take the field. In last week’s game following Darrisaw’s injury, David Quessenberry was tasked with filling in and is expected to be integrated into the game strategy, especially regarding protection for quarterback Sam Darnold.

A key aspect to watch will be the contest between Colts quarterback Joe Flacco and the Vikings’ pass rush. Flacco, now in his 17th season, has stepped in for rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson and is un daunted by the loud venue or the aggressive blitzing schemes from Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Notably, the Vikings come into this game seeking to bounce back from two disappointing outings, including one where they failed to record a sack against the Rams, despite ranking 3rd in the NFL for sacks per game.

Injury updates show that the Colts recently welcomed back three essential starters: Taylor, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, and linebacker E.J. Speed. The Colts do have concerns surrounding left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who is dealing with a concussion. If he remains sidelined, the Colts may have to rely on two rookies on the offensive line. On the Vikings’ side, tight end T.J. Hockenson is set to make his season debut after being on the physically unable to perform list, while linebacker Blake Cashman, who missed the last two games due to a toe injury, may return.

Historically, in their last meeting, the Vikings achieved an unprecedented NFL comeback by overcoming a 33-point deficit against the Colts, which ended a streak of six consecutive losses to Indianapolis. It’s worth noting Minnesota has never secured a victory in this series when playing as the visiting team, whether in Baltimore or Indianapolis.

Statistics reveal an interesting trend: the Colts have had all eight of their games this season decided by six points or fewer, with five of those determined by three points or less. Flacco has only faced the Vikings three times in his career, with none of those encounters since 2017 when he played for the Ravens. Buckner has notched five sacks in his three games against Minnesota, while Colts defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo had an impactful performance last week, registering three tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery – he also recorded two sacks against the Vikings in 2022. After starting strong at 5-0, the Vikings have dropped their last two games but are the only NFL team this season to score in every first quarter. Darnold has showcased impressive numbers at home, boasting a 114.6 passer rating across three games, while his seasonal peak of 128.8 passer rating came against the Rams last week. Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson recorded a season-high eight receptions for 115 yards in the last game, and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel has been effective as well with four sacks in home games this season.

For fantasy players, keep an eye on Colts wide receiver Josh Downs, who achieved a season-high 109 receiving yards with a touchdown in the game against the Texans. In Flacco’s two earlier starts this season, Downs was targeted 21 times, resulting in 16 receptions, showing strong potential. The Vikings’ defense has also displayed weaknesses lately, allowing Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to accumulate 279 passing yards and four touchdowns against them last week.