Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) will face off against the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) on Monday night at 8:15 PM EST, broadcasted on ESPN/ABC. The Chiefs are currently favored to win by 8.5 points according to BetMGM odds. Historically, the Buccaneers hold a slight edge in their head-to-head matchup, leading the series 8-7. Both teams stand at 4-4 against the spread, while the Chiefs have a 5-2 record in that regard. The last time these two teams met, the Chiefs claimed a 41-31 victory at Tampa Bay on October 2, 2022. In their most recent games, the Buccaneers suffered a tight 31-26 loss against the Falcons, while the Chiefs secured a 27-20 win against the Raiders.
Breaking down the statistics, the Buccaneers rank fourth in overall offense, with their passing game especially strong, placing second overall; however, their defense struggles significantly, ranking 30th overall, along with a scoring defense positioned at 28th. The Chiefs, on the other hand, come in at 11th for overall offense, balancing between rushing at 13th and passing at 12th, while their defense is notably stronger, ranking fifth overall and second against the run.
Key players to observe include Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who had a modest two catches for 29 yards in the last game, having just joined the team days before. This week, with additional time to grasp the Chiefs’ expansive playbook, his role is expected to expand, which will also assist in creating opportunities for star tight end Travis Kelce and others.
For the Buccaneers, running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White will be pivotal this week after combining for 73 rushing yards in their last match. Their contribution will be vital against a formidable Kansas City run defense, as maintaining productivity on early downs can help keep the potent Chiefs offense off the field.
A significant matchup will feature Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield against the Chiefs’ cornerbacks, already missing Jaylen Watson due to injury. The Kansas City secondary has shown vulnerabilities recently, especially with Nazeeh Johnson entering concussion protocol and Joshua Williams facing scrutiny for his performance. Mayfield will aim to exploit these weaknesses.
In terms of injuries, the Buccaneers will likely be without wide receiver Mike Evans for two more games, while safety Tykee Smith remains in concussion protocol. The Chiefs are without cornerback Nazeeh Johnson and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, both unavailable for this matchup.
Historically, the Chiefs have won two of their last three encounters, with their most notable defeat coming when Tom Brady led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory in 2021. Prior to this recent trend, Tampa Bay had a five-game winning streak against Kansas City that began in 1999.
Looking at additional statistics, the Buccaneers have not fared well recently, losing three out of their last four games after a strong start. Mayfield currently leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes but is tied for the most interceptions at nine. Cade Otton set a Buccaneers record for a tight end with 17 receptions in two games, while the team has recorded over 400 yards of offense in each of the last three contests. Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin is on a remarkable streak, having converted 30 consecutive field goals.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have made an impressive start, going 7-0 for only the third time in franchise history and maintaining a 13-game winning streak. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes achieved a significant milestone last week, surpassing 30,000 career passing yards faster than any other player in NFL history. Moreover, Travis Kelce approaches the milestone of 76 career receiving touchdowns, needing just one more to tie with Chiefs legend Tony Gonzalez.
From a fantasy perspective, now could be the ideal time to consider starting Patrick Mahomes again. Despite initial hesitations due to injuries among his key receivers, the addition of Hopkins to the mix and a struggling Buccaneers pass defense may lead to a beneficial matchup for Mahomes going forward. This alignment could result in a substantial performance, particularly after a solid showing against the Raiders last week.