WASHINGTON — As the election approaches on November 5, numerous media outlets, along with an engaged audience of voters, will rely on The Associated Press Decision Desk for a clear view of election outcomes. Many are already turning to AP to gauge public opinion on candidates and critical issues.
The Associated Press has been diligently tracking and calling elections since the 1800s, with extensive preparations beginning long before voters step into polling places on the first Tuesday of November.
In a recent episode of The Story Behind the AP Story, an audio series featuring in-depth discussions with AP journalists, David Scott, the vice president of news operations, provides insights into the process of calling races and what election day entails for the Decision Desk. Emily Swanson, the director of public opinion research, also shares details on how AP gathers data to assess voter attitudes.
Haya Panjwani, the host, begins by noting that the Decision Desk has been pivotal in determining election winners since 1848, with Scott leading the charge in the upcoming 2024 elections.
Scott describes the atmosphere on election day, wherein a flurry of voting occurs, particularly in the late afternoon as polls begin to close. As Americans increasingly take to early voting and mail-in ballots, the Decision Desk continuously prepares for the influx of data, ensuring everything is aligned for reporting as results begin to come in around 6 p.m.
Election night is an intense period, with numerous races—totaling around 5,000 contested races—being monitored. As polls close, results continue to be counted into the early hours of the following morning. The team works tirelessly to ensure that accurate results are tabulated, allowing the public to know who will lead them in local and national elections.
During the discussion, Scott emphasizes the historic necessity that drove the AP to start calling races, rather than waiting for official government announcements. The AP quickly gathers results from across counties, directly connecting with local election offices and leveraging various data sources to compile a comprehensive report on election outcomes.
This year, the Decision Desk is set to tabulate the results for a total of 7,000 races. Apart from this, every race they report on will result in the official declaration of a winner.
Swanson highlights the varied functions of polling beyond predicting election victors, urging a broader perspective on its significance. Polling can shed light on voters’ priorities, their perspectives on pressing issues, and their overall experiences with the electoral process.
Since the 1960s, organizations like the AP have employed exit polling to gain an understanding of voter sentiments, but as voting methodologies shift, particularly with the rise of mail-in and early voting options, gathering accurate exit polling data has become much more complex.
To tackle these modern challenges, the AP developed VoteCast, a sophisticated polling tool designed to present an accurate reflection of the voting public, regardless of how they cast their votes.
Scott emphasizes that the driving goal of the Decision Desk is to minimize uncertainty and strive for a complete understanding of the electoral landscape. However, he acknowledges the potential for unexpected complications that could arise during the vote counting process.
The mission to declare election winners comes with a high standard—the team aspires for 100% accuracy. This rigorous standard reflects their commitment to only declare winners when they are confident that no trailing candidate can catch up with the votes counted.
Swanson notes that the evolving voting landscape necessitates increased attention to different methods of casting ballots, as they can significantly influence how results are reported. This shift emphasizes the need for the Decision Desk to adapt its methods to comprehend the nuances of the current electoral environment.
In light of the fast-evolving media landscape and the challenges of misinformation, Scott discusses the importance of transparency in their decision-making process, adopting a ‘show your work’ attitude to foster trust with their audience. As reporting evolves, they aim to deliver not just the headline results but the comprehensive context that encompasses the story behind the vote.
The team understands that in an era rife with disinformation, the best antidote lies in transparency and clarity in their reporting processes on crucial election nights, ensuring their audience remains well-informed and engaged.