New Hampshire, widely viewed as a solidly blue state, hasn’t seen much attention from either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
The state is generally considered safe for Democrats, making it an unlikely battleground for the former president’s team.
Fresh Polls Hint at a Red Shift
This week, however, new polling suggests the political climate in the New England state may be shifting. According to a recent New Hampshire Journal poll, Trump has a narrow 0.4-point lead over Harris, with 50.2% to her 49.8%. While this edge sits within the poll’s margin of error, it hints that New Hampshire could be closer than anticipated.
Historic Voting Margins Show a Blue Trend
In 2016, New Hampshire voters leaned Democratic by a mere 0.3% in favor of Hillary Clinton. That Democratic margin widened in 2020, with Joe Biden winning the state by 7.34%. This shift was driven by increased voter turnout, with approximately 80,000 more ballots cast in 2020 compared to 2016—about 60,000 of which favored the Democratic candidate.
A Long Blue Streak in the Electoral College
New Hampshire’s four Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 2000. While historically blue, the latest polling suggests that, for the first time in over two decades, the state may be inching toward tighter competition.
