BANGKOK — A year ago, a coalition of three armed militias launched an unexpected joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar, breaking a prolonged deadlock with the military regime and swiftly capturing large territories. This significant movement motivated similar attacks from other groups across the country.
Prior to this offensive, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, appeared firmly entrenched in power, largely due to its superior troop numbers and weaponry, as well as support from Russia and China. However, the situation has shifted dramatically, with the military suffering the loss of numerous bases, outposts, and crucial cities—areas that even its leaders admit will be difficult to reclaim.
What sparked this offensive?
The military took control from the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, which intensified fighting with various ethnic minority armed groups and led to the emergence of new pro-democracy militias. Nevertheless, before the initiation of Operation 1027 on October 27, the Tatmadaw had effectively managed to prevent significant territorial losses.
The operation featured coordinated attacks by three prominent ethnic armed groups—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army—collectively known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance. They quickly secured towns and military installations along the northeastern Shan state’s border with China. Shortly afterwards, the Arakan Army expanded its operations in western Rakhine state, with other militia groups and People’s Defense Forces joining the conflict across the nation.
A year into the offensive, resistance forces have established control over a vast territory resembling a horseshoe, stretching from Rakhine state in the west, across northern Myanmar, and extending down to Kayah and Kayin states along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw has been compelled to retreat to central locations around Naypyidaw, the capital, and Yangon, the largest city.
What lies ahead?
There are expectations for an impending counteroffensive by the military, particularly as the rainy season ends, potentially bolstered by around 30,000 recently conscripted troops and maintained air superiority. However, resistance groups are simultaneously advancing toward Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city.
With threats emerging nationwide, experts suggest that the military’s chances of reclaiming lost territories look bleak. “The military is on the defensive across the region, and every time it opts to allocate resources to one area, it becomes vulnerable elsewhere,” remarked an analyst from a Myanmar advocacy group.
What impact has this had on civilians?
As the military confronts challenges on the battlefield, it has increasingly resorted to indiscriminate aerial and artillery bombardments. This strategy has seen a staggering rise in civilian fatalities, with a 95% increase in deaths from airstrikes and a 170% surge in civilian casualties from artillery since the start of Operation 1027, according to a recent United Nations report. The Tatmadaw faces accusations of targeting civilians deliberately due to perceived support for resistance groups, which it denies.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in massive displacement, with more than 3 million people internally displaced in Myanmar and an estimated 18.6 million individuals requiring assistance, as reported by the U.N.
What might happen if the military regime collapses?
As the conflict extends, militias have begun operating beyond their traditional ethnic territories. For instance, the Arakan Army seized the Chin town of Paletwa in January, creating tension among different groups—indicating potential future challenges if the Tatmadaw were to be overthrown.
Currently, there is a sense of solidarity among the diverse ethnic factions united against a common adversary. However, experts caution that this does not equate to unified political goals. Should the Tatmadaw fall, the lack of cooperation on political and territorial issues could lead to fragmentation within Myanmar.
“The possibility of resistance forces toppling the junta seems slim, but it cannot be ruled out,” an analyst noted, emphasizing the need for trust and shared objectives to avoid a scenario reminiscent of the conflict in Syria.
Adding complexity to this situation is the influence of neighboring China, which reportedly supported the 1027 offensive as part of its efforts to combat organized crime along its border. In January, Beijing successfully negotiated a ceasefire in northern Shan, leveraging its connections with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood Alliance. However, this truce lasted only five months before the ethnic alliance resumed its offensive, leading to frustration from China, which has since shown discontent by imposing restrictions on border crossings and electricity supplies to towns in Myanmar, though its attempts to quell the violence have yet to yield results.