BANGKOK — One year ago, three heavily armed militias in northeastern Myanmar joined forces for a sudden offensive, breaking the deadlock with the military regime. Their swift advancements over vast territories encouraged other groups to launch attacks across the nation. The military, which once secure in its control due to superiority in personnel and weaponry, supported by Russia and China, now finds itself increasingly vulnerable, losing numerous outposts, bases, and critical cities that its commanders acknowledge could be hard to reclaim.
“The military is operating defensively nationwide,” said Connor Macdonald from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group. “Each time they focus their efforts in one area, they have to move troops, making them exposed in other regions. It appears unlikely the military will recover any lost territory.”
The military came to power after ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, igniting fierce confrontations with long-established militias of Myanmar’s ethnic minorities, who have pursued autonomy for decades. Additionally, pro-democracy militias, termed the People’s Defense Forces, emerged to support the opposition National Unity Government, formed by ousted lawmakers who were prevented from assuming their roles following the coup. Until the initiation of Operation 1027, starting on October 27, the military — known as the Tatmadaw — had largely maintained its foothold across the country.
Operation 1027 saw strategic cooperation among three dominant ethnic militias known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. This alliance swiftly took control of military bases and towns near the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state. Shortly thereafter, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its home ground of Rakhine state, with various other militia groups and PDFs joining the fray throughout the nation.
A year into the offensive, resistance factions have managed to fully or partially dominate a vast territory shaped like a horseshoe. It spans from Rakhine in the west, through northern regions, and extends southward into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw’s forces have retreated to central Myanmar, around Naypyidaw and Yangon, the country’s capital and largest city, respectively.
“I did not anticipate our objectives would be met so swiftly,” remarked Lway Yay Oo, spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. “We thought we would engage the military council as best as we could, but the process has been easier than we expected, allowing us to advance rapidly.”
Throughout the year, the Tatmadaw has encountered significant humiliations, such as the capture of Laukkai, where the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army seized over 2,000 soldiers, including six generals. The military’s command center in Lashio also fell, further showcasing the regime’s struggles.
“The 1027 offensive was impressively executed and intricate; the strategic use of drones significantly contributed to its success by crippling the military’s network of fire-support bases in the northern Shan region,” explained Morgan Michaels, an analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies. “Once their artillery support diminished, it enabled the resistance to take over more fortified locations.”
Although the military remains “substantially weakened,” analysts believe it is premature to declare its defeat. The Tatmadaw has occasionally regained control of towns like Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had initially fallen, and also managed to thwart an attack on Loikaw, the Kayah state capital. Additionally, they still oversee Myawaddy, a crucial border entry point with Thailand, despite facing attacks therein with help from a rival militia.
Many anticipate the military may mount a counteroffensive as the rainy season ends, especially with about 30,000 new troops enlisted since the introduction of conscription in February, coupled with its air dominance. Meanwhile, resistance forces are closing in on Mandalay, the nation’s second-largest city.
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army’s spokesperson noted, “We have accumulated military experience that enhances our operational capabilities.” His sentiments echo a common theme among resistance groups, who feel emboldened and prepared from the year’s challenges.
In a response, Thet Swe, a representative of the military regime, acknowledged the formidable challenge posed by the Three Brotherhood Alliance regarding the territories they have acquired. “It is not feasible for us to reclaim everything within a year,” he mentioned in a written response. “Yet, I hope to share some positive news with you in the next two or three years.”
As the military struggles on the battlefield, it has resorted to indiscriminate aerial assaults and artillery bombardments, leading to a dramatic rise in civilian casualties — a staggering 95% increase in deaths from airstrikes and a 170% rise from artillery attacks since the launch of the 1027 offensive, according to a recent United Nations report.
The military faces accusations of intentionally targeting civilians believed to be aligned with resistance forces, intensifying animosity towards them, according to Isabel Todd, a coordinator for a human rights advocacy group. “Their tactics are backfiring, inciting greater resentment among civilians and fortifying their commitment to ending the military’s rule,” she stated.
Thet Swe refuted these claims, placing the blame on militia groups for the civilian suffering and violence. In the ongoing conflict, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced, resulting in over 3 million internally displaced persons across Myanmar, alongside approximately 18.6 million people in need of assistance, as reported by the U.N.
The humanitarian situation remains dire, with just one-third of the 2024 humanitarian response plan funded, hampering aid distribution. “The outlook for humanitarian conditions is bleak, and the escalating crisis poses a significant threat to civilian safety,” warned Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, leading the U.N. Office for Humanitarian Coordination in Myanmar.
In some areas, however, the operations have alleviated military pressures, such as in the northwestern Chin state, where reduced military activity has been observed following the repositioning of Tatmadaw forces. As Salai Htet Ni of the Chin National Front noted, “The military convoys that previously traversed the Chin mountains were withdrawn after the 1027 operation, leading to a decline in significant military endeavors.”
The success of resistance forces has created new tensions, particularly as militias expand beyond their traditional territories. For instance, the Arakan Army recently captured Paletwa in Chin state, raising concerns over inter-group relations. Salai Htet Ni indicated that negotiations should have preceded this military action and emphasized the need for collaboration. “Negotiations are essential for overseeing local governance issues,” he asserted, advocating for dialogue over conflict.
Presently, there is some level of cooperation among diverse ethnic factions as they unite against a common adversary; however, Aung Thu Nyein, director for a strategic policy think tank, suggested that this does not imply a unified vision for the future. The victory over Tatmadaw may lead to fragmentation unless political and territorial issues are addressed constructively.
“With no clear framework for resolving disputes, the prospects for a cohesive future appear slim,” he remarked. “While it is improbable the resistance can topple the junta, the possibility of such an outcome cannot be dismissed. Without establishing trust and common objectives, we risk a scenario reminiscent of Syria.”
To complicate matters further, the involvement of China plays a critical role, as the country has shown tacit support for the 1027 offensive in an effort to curtail organized crime activities along its border. In January, Beijing utilized its connections with both the military and Three Brotherhood groups to broker a ceasefire in northern Shan, which endured for five months until hostilities resumed following accusations of military transgressions.
Displeased by the recent developments, China has tightened controls over border crossings and electricity, attempting to quell the violence unsuccessfully. Concurrently, the military regime’s support from China appears to be growing, with officials urging non-engaged factions like the United Wa State Army to apply pressure on the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army to stop their renewed campaigns. Nevertheless, there is no documented evidence indicating that the UWSA has acted on these recommendations.
“It’s a significant misconception to assert that northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance are merely Chinese proxies,” stated Todd. “These entities have their aspirations that they fiercely pursue, independent of any influence China may exert, which is evident from the intense pressure being applied to them lately.”