Nailbiter in the Battle for the Oval Office
The race for the presidency is closer than ever, with Republican Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris virtually tied in the national polling average from RealClearPolitics.
Harris holds a razor-thin lead of 0.9 points, a significantly smaller margin than Trump’s previous rivals had at this stage in their campaigns. In 2020, two weeks before Election Day, President Biden led Trump by 7.9 points and ultimately won by a narrow margin. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 6.1 points ahead but famously lost the election.
Swing States Show a Dead Heat
A recent poll of seven key swing states continues to reflect the tight national race. A Washington Post-Schar School survey released on Monday shows that the contest between Harris and Trump is statistically deadlocked across these battlegrounds.
Among likely voters, Trump leads in Arizona (49% to 46%) and North Carolina (50% to 47%), while Harris leads in Georgia (51% to 47%), Michigan (49% to 47%), Pennsylvania (49% to 47%), and Wisconsin (50% to 47%). Nevada, a crucial state, is tied at 48% each.
When considering registered voters, Harris holds the lead in Georgia (50% to 44%), Nevada (47% to 44%), Pennsylvania (49% to 46%), and Wisconsin (50% to 46%). Trump, meanwhile, leads in Arizona (50% to 44%), Michigan (47% to 46%), and North Carolina (49% to 45%).
Trump Gains a Narrow Lead in Election Forecasts
For the first time since the launch of the presidential election forecast by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Trump has taken a slight lead over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on October 18, the model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 48-in-100 chance.
This shift comes after a series of polls indicated the race tightening in key northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds. In Pennsylvania, the popular vote forecast has moved from a 0.6-point lead for Harris on October 1 to a 0.2-point lead for Trump. In Michigan, Harris’ 1.8-point advantage has dwindled to just 0.4 points, while Wisconsin has gone from a 1.6-point lead for Harris to a dead tie.
Electoral College Predictions
The latest FiveThirtyEight projections show a possible path to victory for Trump, who is now favored to win 296 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 242 if the predictions hold. This would signal a shift in momentum, with Arizona and Georgia moving from toss-up status to leaning Republican.
