This year, President Vladimir Putin has consistently emphasized Russia’s extensive nuclear capabilities in an effort to deter the West from increasing its support for Ukraine. He instructed the military to conduct exercises with battlefield nuclear weapons alongside Belarus and announced plans for Russia to begin manufacturing ground-based intermediate-range missiles, previously banned by a now-defunct treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union dating back to 1987. Last month, he signaled a shift in Russia’s nuclear posture by amending the country’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for potential nuclear engagement.
Putin views Russia’s vast arsenal of thousands of warheads and hundreds of missiles as a crucial deterrent against NATO’s significant superiority in conventional military capabilities, which he perceives as a direct threat to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This article examines the details of Russia’s nuclear capabilities and the associated strategic considerations.
According to estimates from the Federation of American Scientists, Russia possesses an estimated total of 5,580 nuclear warheads, both deployed and non-deployed, while the United States has around 5,044. Collectively, these figures represent approximately 88% of the global nuclear stockpile. Russia’s arsenal predominantly consists of strategic weapons capable of intercontinental ranges. Like the United States, Russia has built a nuclear triad that includes ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range bombers, and submarines armed with ICBMs.
Since Putin’s ascent to power in 2000, there has been a concerted effort to modernize the Soviet-era components of this triad. The military has introduced numerous new land-based missiles, commissioned new nuclear submarines, and upgraded nuclear-capable bombers. The modernization of Russia’s nuclear forces has spurred the U.S. to pursue a costly upgrade of its own nuclear arsenal. Recently, Russia has enhanced its land-based strategic missile forces by incorporating mobile Yars ICBMs and beginning to deploy the heavy, silo-based Sarmat ICBMs, which are known as “Satan II” missiles in the West. However, Sarmat has only undergone one successful test and met with complications during a recent test flight.
On the naval front, Russia has commissioned seven new Borei-class submarines, each equipped with 16 Bulava missiles with nuclear capabilities, and plans to expand its fleet further. These submarines form a crucial part of the naval element of Russia’s nuclear triad alongside several operational Soviet-era submarines.
In the air, Russia continues to depend on legacy Soviet strategic bombers such as the Tu-95 and Tu-160 which can launch nuclear cruise missiles. Additionally, production of the supersonic Tu-160 has resumed after being halted following the 1991 collapse of the USSR, with plans to deliver several dozen upgraded aircraft featuring modern engines and avionics.
As for Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons, estimates from the United States suggest that Russia has between 1,000 to 2,000 non-strategic nuclear weapons, which are generally less powerful than strategic warheads but are intended for use on the battlefield. The military operates high-precision ground-launched Iskander missiles that have a range of up to 500 kilometers and can be armed with either conventional or nuclear warheads. Meanwhile, the air force has MiG-31 fighter jets equipped with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles that can also carry nuclear warheads.
In May, Russia and Belarus conducted drills focusing on the use of battlefield nuclear weapons, reaffirming the Kremlin’s nuclear messaging shortly after Putin’s re-election. For decades, both Moscow and Washington have depended on nuclear deterrence through the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which posits that the threat of overwhelming retaliation would deter either side from launching a nuclear strike.
In 2020, Russia adopted a nuclear doctrine that outlined the potential use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or a conventional assault that posed an existential threat to the Russian state—though this doctrine received criticism for its perceived vagueness and calls for a more stringent approach. Recently, Putin warned U.S. and NATO allies that supplying Ukraine with longer-range weaponry to target within Russia could be perceived as a direct act of war against Russia. In a revamped version of the nuclear doctrine, any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power would also be construed as a joint assault against Russian sovereignty, serving as a stark warning to Western nations.
Changes to the doctrine reflect Russia’s commitment to utilizing nuclear capabilities for coercive purposes in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as noted by experts in the strategic community. Looking towards the future of arms control, the New START treaty—which limits each nation to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers—is set to expire in 2026. Earlier this year, Putin announced the suspension of Russia’s participation in this treaty but asserted that Russia would continue to adhere to its limits.
In July, he indicated that Russia would commence production of ground-based intermediate-range missiles in response to U.S. plans to deploy similar missile systems in Europe, suggesting that Russia would mirror such actions. Despite soaring tensions between the U.S. and Russia—heightened by the conflict in Ukraine—Washington has called for renewed discussions on nuclear arms control, an invitation Putin has dismissed, claiming that negotiations would be fruitless while the U.S. seeks a strategic defeat of Russia.
Calls have surfaced from some Russian officials for the nation to resume nuclear testing to showcase its readiness to utilize its atomic arsenal, potentially pressuring the West to limit military aid to Ukraine. Putin stated that Russia could reinitiate testing if the U.S. does so first, which could end a longstanding global moratorium on such actions.
Looking ahead, Putin previously unveiled a series of new weapons in 2018, asserting that they could evade any U.S. missile defenses. Among these are the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, reportedly capable of traveling at 27 times the speed of sound, and the nuclear-powered Poseidon underwater drone designed to create a radioactive tsunami upon detonation. He also noted that tests for Poseidon are nearing completion.
Furthermore, the development of a nuclear-powered cruise missile, dubbed Burevestnik or Petrel, has faced skepticism from experts due to technological challenges and radiation risks. Notably, in 2019, a mishap during tests related to Burevestnik at a naval range resulted in an explosion, leading to the tragic loss of lives and a brief spike in radiation levels. Putin affirmed that development for the missile is nearing conclusion, with reports indicating the construction of a base for these missiles in northwestern Russia.