KYIV, Ukraine — On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is anticipated to present a draft of his comprehensive strategy aimed at overcoming the ongoing conflict with Russia during an address to the nation’s Parliament. This comes after weeks of uncertain signals directed toward Western allies, including U.S. President Joe Biden, regarding his proposed plan.
This strategy, which encompasses military, political, diplomatic, and economic components, is perceived by many as Ukraine’s final opportunity to fortify its position in any potential ceasefire discussions with Russia. To date, however, no nation has publicly validated the plan or assessed its viability.
Zelenskyy is eager to establish his “victory plan” before the inauguration of a new U.S. president next year. Ukrainian officials have suggested that neither candidate may significantly enhance Ukraine’s situation within the conflict.
The forthcoming presentation is being spotlighted during a difficult chapter for Ukraine, as its military faces troubling losses on the eastern front, with Russian forces advancing near the critical logistics center of Pokrovsk. The situation is compounded by the overwhelming numbers of Moscow’s military forces, ongoing challenges in mobilizing troops, restricted ammunition supplies, and significant Russian aerial dominance impacting Ukrainian defense positions.
It remains uncertain what aspects of the victory plan Zelenskyy will disclose during his address. While Serhii Leshchenko, a presidential adviser, indicated an intention to present the full plan, other officials suggested that sensitive details might be withheld from all members of Parliament.
This plan primarily hinges on Ukraine’s future reliance on international allies. Failing to succeed with this plan could mean that any agreement with Russia would be unfavorable for Ukraine, which has already endured the loss of one-fifth of its territory and countless lives. The prospect of reclaiming occupied land or securing reparations for extensive damage seems unlikely under current conditions.
Some components of the plan have already emerged, such as pursuing NATO membership for Ukraine, allowing the use of Western long-range weaponry to reach deep into Russian territory, enhancing Ukraine’s air defenses, and tightening sanctions against Russia.
Zelenskyy mentioned that Ukraine’s unexpected military actions in the Kursk region of Russia back in August were also part of this strategy. He noted that the 1,000 square kilometers of land captured could serve as leverage during negotiations with Moscow.
Ukrainian officials argue that NATO’s Article 5, which declares that an attack on one member is an attack on all, could deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from further aggression if Ukraine were to join the alliance. However, Western leaders have hesitated to provide this assurance, wary of provoking further escalation from Russia.
Ukrainian representatives were hoping to garner insights and feedback from their Western allies at a recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where defense ministers from over 50 nations convene to strategize military support for Ukraine. This planned summit was postponed due to President Biden’s cancellation following Hurricane Milton in the U.S.
Zelenskyy has undertaken visits to various Western capitals to convey his vision to other strategic allies, but thus far, none have explicitly expressed support for his plan. Some allies have raised apprehensions regarding the tight timeline Zelenskyy established, demanding that key components of the strategy be adopted within just three months.
Although the United States has been Ukraine’s primary supporter throughout the two-and-a-half-year duration of the conflict, President Biden has hesitated in responding to requests for long-range weapons capable of striking designated targets within Russia, fearing it may escalate hostilities further. Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Hezbollah, which could involve Iran, have drawn Washington’s focus away from Ukraine.
It is anticipated that Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris would maintain Biden’s policies and uphold the current trajectory. Despite the substantial aid received by Ukraine under Biden, critics argue that it has often arrived too late to enact meaningful changes on the battlefield.
Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump has indicated a desire to bring about a swift conclusion to the war but has been vague about how he would accomplish this.
In the meantime, Brazil and China have presented alternative peace proposals, which Zelenskyy has dismissed as merely delaying tactics that would enable Russia to regroup its weakened military forces and repair its defense infrastructure.