MADISON, Wis. — Recognizing a potential opening in the competitive battleground of Wisconsin, Republicans are significantly increasing their financial backing to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin in what has become a highly scrutinized Senate election.

The Democratic campaign is also intensifying its efforts to ensure the vital Senate majority, with party leaders noting that their spending still outpaces that of Republicans. As the election date approaches, Democrats acknowledge that the race is becoming more competitive.

A defeat in Wisconsin at the hands of GOP candidate Eric Hovde could complicate the Democrats’ quest to retain their Senate majority, especially in a landscape where they have fewer vulnerable seats this election cycle.

Republicans are anticipating a close contest, with strategist Alec Zimmerman stating, “Right now, it’s anybody’s game,” referencing his experience from Senator Ron Johnson’s victorious campaign in 2022.

As of the beginning of the week, Democratic expenditures on advertising in Wisconsin have reached $93 million, compared to $69 million spent by Republicans, as reported by AdImpact, a firm that analyzes campaign ad spending. Baldwin’s campaign makes up over a third of the total Democratic spending, while Hovde’s campaign has utilized substantial support from outside organizations.

In the closing weeks of the race, Republicans have ramped up their advertising efforts with $21 million earmarked for ads through early November, contrasted with Democratic spending of $15 million. Approximately two-thirds of the new Republican ads will be financed by the Senate Leadership Fund, overseen by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which has set aside about $13.1 million for ad purchases.

Hovde expressed confidence in his chances during a forum in Milwaukee, stating, “I believe the momentum is on my side. I intend to win this election by focusing on the issues that matter to voters.”

Baldwin, campaigning with vice presidential nominee Tim Walz in western Wisconsin, conveyed that she anticipated the race tightening. She emphasized, “I have been consistently working to unite Wisconsin voters behind my vision for the state. I am confident in our campaign’s strength, direction, and message as we head toward the election.”

Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff noted that Hovde has solidified support within the Republican base and is financially equipped to communicate his platform, having personally loaned at least $13 million to his campaign.

For success, she believes Baldwin should remain authentic and highlight her accomplishments. “Her transparency and reliability set this race apart from others across the country,” Baldauff stated. “Voters recognize her commitment and presence throughout Wisconsin.”

According to Zimmerman, Baldwin is positioned in the most challenging political climate of her three campaigns. He pointed to Hovde’s strength on key issues such as the economy and immigration as significant advantages he should leverage in the race.

“Elections in Wisconsin often come down to the wire,” Zimmerman noted. “Close races are customary here, and Baldwin has typically defied that trend.”

In four of the last six presidential elections, Wisconsin’s results have been decided by margins of less than one percentage point. Though the U.S. Senate races have been slightly less competitive, Baldwin won her first election by nearly six points in 2012 and by almost eleven points in 2018. Still, the last Senate race in 2022 was won by Johnson by a slim one-point margin.

Baldwin’s race is essential for Democrats as they defend 23 seats in the Senate, including three occupied by independents, with their hold at 51-49. Meanwhile, Republicans are working to protect just 11 seats.

Baldwin insists her campaign strategy remains the same as in previous elections: reaching out to constituents in both Republican and Democratic strongholds and highlighting her record on behalf of Wisconsin’s farmers and middle-class families. She aims to visit every major media market in the state during the week.

In an effort to establish her bipartisan credentials, Baldwin received the endorsement from the conservative Wisconsin Farm Bureau, marking the first time in over two decades that a Democratic candidate has garnered such support in a statewide race.

She has launched strong critiques against Hovde, portraying him as an out-of-touch millionaire aiming to undermine essential programs such as Social Security and Medicare while advocating for a national abortion ban. Campaign ads have emphasized Hovde’s past role as CEO and his ownership of a luxury $7 million estate in California, even as he claims a permanent residence in Madison.

Hovde challenges Baldwin’s characterizations, asserting his intention only to raise the retirement age for benefits for younger workers and denying that he seeks to cut existing benefits for seniors.

Since his first Senate campaign in 2012, Hovde has softened his stance on abortion, stating that he would not support a federal ban, preferring to let states make their own laws on the issue.

He has painted Baldwin—who has held elected office for nearly 40 years—as a career politician who has failed to adequately address border security and the economy. Hovde criticized Baldwin for her limited willingness to engage with voters, agreeing to only one debate, set to be broadcast live on Friday night.

“If I prevail, it will mark a historic moment as Wisconsin would have two Republican Senators for the first time since 1957,” Hovde stated, while acknowledging the significant Democratic momentum in statewide races.