SHAWNEE, Kan. — In her effort to connect with voters, Vanessa Vaughn West began her campaign by asking a simple but effective question at the doors of constituents: What are the issues that matter most to you? Through these interactions, she discovered concerns regarding escalating local property taxes, a call for smaller government, and inquiries into affordable housing options.
West, a Democrat and a candidate for a Kansas House seat, is making her second attempt to secure a position representing a western Kansas City neighborhood that has been predominantly Republican since the housing boom of the late 1990s. Her rival in this race, Republican state Rep. Angela Stiens, has drawn national attention as Democrats recognize a potential opportunity to reclaim critical legislative seats. The national Democratic Party is watching closely since breaking the Republican supermajority in the Kansas Legislature could prevent the ongoing override of Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s vetoes, particularly those concerning abortion and transgender rights.
A similar scenario underscores the battlegrounds in North Carolina, where a single seat flipping could strip the GOP of their veto-proof majority over the opposition of the Democratic governor. Conversely, in Nevada, Democrats have a chance to achieve a veto-proof majority over a Republican governor by winning just one additional seat in the Senate while maintaining their Assembly seats.
This year, over 5,800 state legislative positions across 44 states are up for grabs amid broader election dynamics that feature presidential and congressional elections. Both Democratic and Republican-aligned organizations are poised to invest hundreds of millions into these state contests, particularly in key states where party control is in flux, including Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Despite clear party dominance in many states, there remain significant implications even in areas perceived as solidly Republican or Democratic due to the potential shifts in legislative power. Research pinpointed 14 states where a change of just a few seats could yield a supermajority, allowing one political party to enact legislation despite a governor’s veto and influence constitutional amendments without bipartisan support.
Wesley Hussey, a political science educator at California State University, Sacramento, emphasized the importance of party power. He noted, “Having a party in power is really important — the most important thing,” while also pointing out that “a supermajority can provide additional advantages for enacting policy.”
In Kansas, Stiens stepped into her role after being appointed to fill a vacancy, contributing to efforts that enabled Republicans to override Kelly’s veto of a bill that mandated abortion providers to report the reasons behind a patient’s decision to terminate a pregnancy to state authorities. Although the law is presently stalled due to legal challenges, West contends that the continuous legislative push limiting abortion access is among the primary motivations for her candidacy, following her narrow defeat to Stiens’ predecessor two years ago. West ardently supports abortion rights, a sentiment echoed in Johnson County, where nearly 69% voted in favor of preserving those rights during the impactful 2022 statewide referendum.
“This is why we need parity in our representation,” West posited as she moved through neighborhoods engaging with potential voters. “Legislators should echo the public sentiment reflected in their votes, particularly on vital issues like these.” The suburb’s demographic has shifted subtly towards greater diversity, presenting a more favorable landscape for Democratic candidates since former President Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Additionally, Democrats are eyeing a segment of southwestern Topeka, which has historically leaned GOP, where state Rep. Jesse Borjon is campaigning for a third term against Democrat Jacquie Lightcap, a local school board member.
Borjon underscored his commitment to public education and recent tax cuts during door-to-door campaigning in an affluent neighborhood. His support for the elimination of state income tax on Social Security benefits resonated with voters such as Bob Schmidt, a retired executive who engaged with Borjon about the pressures of rising property taxes. Despite party differences, Schmidt emphasized his desire for a representative who upholds conservative values.
North Carolina exemplifies the significant influence supermajorities wield in legislative processes. After state Rep. Tricia Cotham’s party switch to Republican earlier this year, GOP control in both legislative chambers was solidified, enabling swift overrides of several vetoes from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. The Republicans leveraged their newfound power to enact over twenty laws, despite Cooper’s opposition, including those that limited abortion rights, restricted gender identity discussions in early education, and diminished the governor’s election oversight capacity.
Given the political landscape, it is crucial for Republicans to maintain their supermajority as they adapt to a potentially Democratic governor succeeding Cooper, as articulated by political scholars citing the risk of returning to a scenario where they must negotiate with opposing party leadership.
As of now, the prevalence of legislative supermajorities is notably high, more so than in the previous four decades. Research reveals that while Democrats control nine such majorities, Republicans dominate with 20, even in instances like Nebraska, where the legislature operates nonpartisan yet lean Republican in identity.
Democrats face the challenge of gaining just three or fewer seats in elections to dismantle Republican supermajorities in key states like Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, and North Carolina. Meanwhile, a successful Republican gain could result in a similar outcome for Democrats in areas like Delaware and New York.
The potential for supermajorities to shift political landscapes continues, and while legislative leaders may aspire for consistent alignment, history shows that larger majorities can lead to more internal divisions and disagreements. As noted by experts, the dynamics within legislative bodies might counter the anticipated efficacy of supermajorities despite their advantages in theory.