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Betting odds from BetMGM indicate the Bills are favored by 2.5 points. In their long-standing rivalry, the Bills currently lead the all-time series with a record of 69 wins to 58 losses. Both teams have performed evenly against the spread this season, each holding a 2-3 record. In their last encounter on November 19, 2023, Buffalo triumphed over New York with a score of 32-6.
In recent games, the Bills tied with the Texans in a 23-23 contest, while the Jets suffered a narrow defeat to the Vikings, losing 23-17.
Examining the offensive and defensive stats, the Bills rank 22nd overall in offense, with a 14th-place finish in rushing yards and a 24th-place finish in passing yards, while they sit third in scoring. On defense, they hold the 20th position overall, ranking 26th against the rush and 14th against the pass, with a scoring defense that stands tied for 12th. Conversely, the Jets find themselves 27th in offensive rankings, particularly struggling in rushing, which has them ranked 32nd. Their passing game is slightly better at 19th, but they rank 25th in scoring. However, their defense is one of the league’s best, coming in at 2nd overall, with respectable numbers against both the run (14th) and the pass (2nd), and 5th in scoring defense.
In terms of turnovers, the Bills have a significant edge with a +7 differential, whereas the Jets are even in this category.
A key player to watch for the Bills is wide receiver Khalil Shakir. After missing last week due to a right ankle injury, his potential return could boost Buffalo’s passing game, where he has shined, catching 18 of the 19 passes aimed at him, totaling 230 receiving yards and two touchdowns. If Shakir is unavailable, it raises the question of which other receivers will rise to the occasion, particularly after the group only managed four catches on 18 targets in their last game.
For the Jets, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a focal point of attention. The veteran signal-caller returned to full practice after struggling with a sprained left ankle and hamstring last week, following prior issues with his knee. Much of the Jets’ offensive success hinges on his health and effectiveness, especially considering he has been sacked eight times and hit 25 times in the last two weeks. This matchup will be particularly significant as it marks his first game against the Bills since his left Achilles tendon injury early last season.
The matchup to closely monitor is between quarterback Josh Allen and the Jets’ formidable passing defense. Allen is currently enjoying a career-best streak without interceptions. Yet, the Bills have encountered difficulties in their passing game, which has seen their 42 passing first downs rank as their lowest through five games since 2018. Compounding this, Buffalo has struggled in first halves recently, being outscored 38-6. The Jets’ defense will certainly pose a challenge, standing 2nd in the league against the pass.
Injury reports have an impact on both teams. For the Bills, defensive tackle Ed Oliver is ruled out with a hamstring injury, while Shakir and running back James Cook are both listed as questionable. Cornerback Taron Johnson could return after a four-game absence due to a right forearm issue. For the Jets, cornerback Michael Carter II is sidelined due to a back injury, while defensive lineman Leki Fotu has recovered enough to potentially return from injured reserve. Right tackle Morgan Moses and linebacker C.J. Mosley have also missed recent games but may return for this Monday night matchup. Tight end Tyler Conklin’s status remains uncertain due to a hip injury.
Recently, Buffalo has fared well against the Jets historically, winning 15 of their last 23 matchups since breaking a six-game losing streak between 2009 and 2012. A victory for the Jets could see them tied with the Bills for the top spot in the AFC East. The Bills have not lost three consecutive games since Allen took over as the starter. Their last three-game skid occurred during the 2018 season when Allen was sidelined for part of the stretch due to injury.
Allen is approaching a milestone 100th game, currently tied with Patrick Mahomes for the most combined touchdowns in a player’s first seven seasons at 231. Buffalo’s running back James Cook is having a standout season, being the first player since Fred Jackson in 2013 to exceed both 300 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards within the first five games. The Browns hold a strong record following losses, sitting at 18-6 since 2019, which might aid them in breaking a losing streak.
On the Jets side, head coach Jeff Ulbrich has stepped in as the interim coach after Robert Saleh’s departure, recently transitioning responsibilities in offense from Nathaniel Hackett to Todd Downing. Rodgers has faced challenges, throwing three interceptions in his latest game, matching a previous low in his career. However, on the bright side, he recently achieved a significant milestone by surpassing 60,000 passing yards. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson is recently back to form, recording a career-high 13 receptions for 101 yards last week. Moreover, edge rusher Will McDonald is thriving, tied for second in the league with six sacks this season, adding to the pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
In fantasy considerations, Wilson’s resurgence makes him a must-start option, demonstrating potential as a reliable WR1. Despite challenges in establishing strong chemistry with Rodgers, his consistent performance suggests he can thrive even in less-than-ideal situations.
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