Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is poised to potentially win a national election for the first time on Sunday. The party, led by Herbert Kickl, is capitalizing on voter concerns regarding issues such as immigration, inflation, Ukraine, and others, following a trend of gains for hard-right parties across Europe. Kickl, a former interior minister and seasoned campaign strategist, aims to become Austria’s new chancellor, a position he refers to as “Volkskanzler,” drawing historical comparisons to the Nazis, which he denies.

For Kickl to secure leadership in Austria, he would need to form a coalition with another party to secure a majority in the parliament. Recent polls indicate a tight race, with the Freedom Party at 27%, Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s conservative Austrian People’s Party at 25%, and the center-left Social Democrats at 21%. Over 6.3 million eligible voters are set to participate in the election for the new parliament in Austria, an EU member known for its military neutrality.

Following a decline in support after a 2019 scandal, the Freedom Party, under Kickl’s leadership, has experienced a resurgence, buoyed by tapping into voter frustrations over various crises, including high inflation, the Ukraine conflict, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The party’s election platform includes calls for stricter border controls, suspension of the right to asylum through emergency laws, and advocating for the repatriation of “uninvited foreigners.”

Furthermore, Kickl’s leadership has taken the Freedom Party further to the right, with critics highlighting his provocative and aggressive rhetoric. The party’s positions include opposing sanctions against Russia, criticizing military aid to Ukraine, and seeking to withdraw from European defense initiatives. In contrast, the leader of the Social Democrats has positioned himself against Kickl, labeling him as a threat to democracy and ruling out any coalition with the far-right party.

Chancellor Nehammer’s People’s Party, currently leading a coalition government with the Greens, has seen a decline in popularity. Nehammer portrays his party as a stabilizing force amidst multiple crises but has faced backlash over issues such as high inflation and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recent storms and flooding in Austria have brought environmental concerns to the forefront, allowing Nehammer to present himself as a crisis manager and narrow the gap with the Freedom Party.

As the election approaches, the possibility of coalition scenarios post-election remains uncertain, with the potential for a coalition between the People’s Party and the Freedom Party if the former emerges victorious. Alternatively, a three-way alliance involving the People’s Party, the Social Democrats, and the liberal Neos is also a likely outcome. The election outcome will have significant implications for Austria’s political landscape and its future direction.