Novak Djokovic understands why some tennis players might feel there’s a double standard in the sport following Jannik Sinner’s recent doping controversy. Despite testing positive twice for anabolic steroids in March, Sinner was not suspended after the International Tennis Integrity Agency concluded the banned substance was introduced unintentionally through a massage by his physiotherapist.
Djokovic expressed agreement with concerns over “a lack of consistency” in the sport’s handling of such cases. “I understand the frustration from players due to the inconsistency,” Djokovic said. “As I understand it, his case was cleared almost immediately upon announcement.”
The ruling was released just days before Sinner, who is the top seed for the upcoming US Open, begins his campaign. Djokovic, who won the tournament last year to secure his 24th Grand Slam singles title, is the No. 2 seed.
After the ruling, some players took to social media to question whether Sinner’s status as one of the sport’s elite players influenced the decision.
Who are the favorites at the US Open?
Things rarely go as planned in New York. Serena Williams entered the 2015 US Open poised to achieve what she hadn’t yet: a calendar Grand Slam. Instead, she was stunned by Roberta Vinci in the semifinals, a player against whom she had never lost a set. Novak Djokovic faced a similar fate in 2021, reaching the finals but falling in straight sets to Daniil Medvedev.
The US Open is notorious for surprising runs. Over the past 15 years, 18 players have won their first and only Slam title (to date), with 10 coming from the US Open and eight from the other three majors combined (Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon). For seven consecutive years, either the men’s or women’s champion—or both in 2021—were first-time Slam winners.
This year’s favorites are well-known: Carlos Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Jannik Sinner—winners of the past nine Slams (and the 2024 Olympic gold and silver medals)—lead the men’s side, while Aryna Sabalenka (two-time Australian Open champion and US Open semifinalist) and Iga Swiatek (2022 US Open champion and five-time Slam winner) are top picks for the women. Yet, the real intrigue lies in the potential for chaos. Let’s delve into the top contenders for this year’s tournament.
The Favorites
Carlos Alcaraz
- ESPN BET odds: +185 | Tennis Abstract odds: 14%
- First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Hubert Hurkacz or No. 10 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
The No. 3 seed, Alcaraz’s chances dipped slightly after landing in the same draw half as Sinner for the third consecutive Slam. However, he has won 42 of his last 45 Slam matches and has defeated both Djokovic and Sinner in their last two meetings. If Alcaraz clinches the US Open, he will be the first man to win five Slam titles before turning 22.
Novak Djokovic
- ESPN BET odds: +210 | Tennis Abstract odds: 29%
- First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Andrey Rublev or No. 8 Grigor Dimitrov (quarterfinals)
Djokovic has once again received a favorable draw. His primary threats—Alcaraz, Sinner, and Medvedev (the 2021 champion)—are on the opposite side of the bracket. Although he might face No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev or No. 8 Casper Ruud in the semifinals, Djokovic has a perfect 4-0 record against them in best-of-five matches and is riding high after winning Olympic gold in Paris.
Aryna Sabalenka
- ESPN BET odds: +225 | Tennis Abstract odds: 19%
- First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Qinwen Zheng (quarterfinals)
After a quarterfinal loss at the French Open and missing Wimbledon and the Olympics due to a shoulder injury, Sabalenka, the defending US Open runner-up, is back in form. She has a 16-3 record in New York over the past three years and recently won the Cincinnati title without dropping a set. This makes her a strong favorite.
Jannik Sinner
- ESPN BET odds: +375 | Tennis Abstract odds: 42%
- First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (quarterfinals)
Despite lingering hip issues and a recent doping controversy, Sinner remains a formidable contender. He might face the past three Slam champions—Medvedev, Alcaraz, and Djokovic—in succession. However, with a 48-5 record in 2024 and a recent title in Cincinnati, he’s still a top threat.
Iga Swiatek
- ESPN BET odds: +340 | Tennis Abstract odds: 36%
- First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Pegula (quarterfinals)
Though Swiatek has had a rough patch, including a surprising loss at the 2024 Olympics and recent defeats, she remains a top contender. Her side of the draw includes several top seeds, but her past success and formidable skills make her a strong candidate.
The Americans
Coco Gauff
- ESPN BET odds: +800 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.0%
- First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Barbora Krejcikova or No. 9 Maria Sakkari (quarterfinals)
Gauff’s form has been inconsistent since a stellar run last year, including a disappointing loss at Wimbledon. Returning to the site of her biggest triumph could spark a resurgence.
Jessica Pegula
- ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.2%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Swiatek (quarterfinals)
Pegula is a strong candidate for a breakthrough, having recently played well in Toronto and Cincinnati. She has shown momentum heading into New York.
Danielle Collins
- ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.9%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Pegula (fourth round)
Collins has had a strong year but has struggled recently. If she finds her top form, she could make a significant impact.
Madison Keys
- ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.3%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Sabalenka (fourth round)
Keys has had success on hard courts but is currently battling injuries. If healthy, she remains a dangerous opponent.
Taylor Fritz
- ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.6%
- First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Casper Ruud (fourth round)
Fritz’s steady performance over the past two years makes him a potential dark horse.
Frances Tiafoe
- ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Djokovic (fourth round)
Tiafoe’s form has been inconsistent, but he has previously performed well at the US Open.
Sebastian Korda
- ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.2%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Alcaraz (fourth round)
Korda’s recent success on American hard courts makes him a player to watch.
Tommy Paul
- ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.3%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Sinner (fourth round)
Paul’s steady play could make him a formidable opponent despite a tough draw.
Ben Shelton
- ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Djokovic (fourth round)
Shelton’s previous US Open performances suggest he could be a strong contender if he overcomes recent challenges.
More Threats on the Women’s Side
Elena Rybakina
- ESPN BET odds: +900 | Tennis Abstract odds: 14.5%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Jasmine Paolini or Ostapenko (quarterfinals)
Rybakina’s year has been plagued by illness, making her a potential but unpredictable threat.
Mirra Andreeva
- ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.5%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Swiatek (fourth round)
Andreeva has shown potential and could pose a challenge if she regains consistency.
Barbora Krejcikova
- ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.1%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Sakkari (fourth round)
Krejcikova’s recent Wimbledon win and strong performance in Paris make her a dangerous player.
Jasmine Paolini
- ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.6%
- First potential top-10 opponent: Ostapenko (fourth round)
Paolini’s recent success and solid performances make her a contender to watch.
Others: Paula Badosa, Matteo Berrettini, Alex De Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov, Hubert Hurkacz, Anna Kalinskaya, Daria Kasatkina, Linda Noskova, Holger Rune, Diana Shnaider, Elina Svitolina, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Donna Vekic.
The US Open is always full of surprises, and this year is no exception. With so many players in the mix, anything can happen as the tournament unfolds.
