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Charges Filed Against Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro for Alleged Coup: What’s His Future?

SAO PAULO — Brazil’s ex-President Jair Bolsonaro has been charged with planning to remain in power despite his loss in the 2022 election. The nation’s top prosecutor has alleged that this plot included an attempt to poison his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

On Tuesday, Bolsonaro faced unprecedented allegations that encompass five distinct crimes, which include an attempted coup. Additionally, 33 others associated with Bolsonaro have also been implicated in the scheme.

Bolsonaro is currently prohibited from running for any office until 2030 due to previous misconduct during his tenure, wherein he raised unsubstantiated claims against Brazil’s electronic voting system. He has refuted the charges, asserting that he is undergoing political persecution.

**Current Status of the Case**
Bolsonaro’s case has now reached Brazil’s Supreme Court, which will determine whether he will go on trial. If found guilty, he may face a substantial prison sentence. Under Brazilian law, the charge of coup d’état alone could lead to a maximum penalty of 12 years, but when considered alongside his other charges, he could potentially face several decades behind bars.

The charges originate from a police investigation, which concluded in November, revealing a detailed scheme aimed at retaining power. Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet has accused Bolsonaro of heading a criminal organization that has been manipulating public perception regarding Brazil’s voting system since at least 2021.

Gonet stated that Bolsonaro supported a strategy to reverse the election results following his narrow defeat. Part of this plan, referred to as “Green and Yellow Dagger,” included intentions to poison Lula and murder Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Gonet has yet to clarify the extent of the plot.

On January 8, 2023, Bolsonaro’s supporters forcibly invaded and vandalized the Supreme Court, the Presidential Palace, and Congress in Brasilia, one week after Lula’s inauguration, reflecting a last-ditch effort to maintain power, as per Gonet’s claims.

**Possibility of Imprisonment**
The Supreme Court will assess whether to initiate a trial against Bolsonaro or send the charges back to the prosecutor for further clarification. There is also the option to dismiss the charges entirely. While two justices on the court were appointed by Bolsonaro, a panel of five judges—which does not include them—will primarily consider his case. Justice Alexandre de Moraes will preside over this panel, a figure whom Bolsonaro previously threatened to defy.

No timeframe has been set for the court’s ruling. The five charges against Bolsonaro include leading a criminal group aimed at preserving his presidency after the 2022 election loss, seeking to disrupt the democratic order through violence, engaging in a coup attempt, damaging state assets, and compromising national heritage—two of which stem from the events in Brasilia.

**Additional Legal Troubles**
Even if he is acquitted, Bolsonaro may face further legal challenges. Authorities have also accused him of instructing officials to falsify a public health database so it would appear that he and his 12-year-old daughter had been vaccinated against COVID-19, allowing them to bypass U.S. entry requirements during the pandemic.

Moreover, it has been reported that Bolsonaro attempted to illegally import jewelry valued at over a million dollars from Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, seeking to keep the items rather than allowing them to be added to the state’s presidential collection.

The charge of attempting a coup is the most severe against Bolsonaro. He is expected to continue advocating for lawmakers to offer clemency to those involved in the January 8 riots, a strategy that legal analysts suggest may be his route back into politics. Despite the serious allegations, many of Bolsonaro’s supporters believe he will still be a candidate in the upcoming presidential election rather than facing incarceration.

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