Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidency officially ended last year, but Ukraine remains under martial law. His government insists no elections will happen until the war is over. Despite this, both the U.S. and Russia are pushing for a vote as part of a peace deal.
U.S. and Russia agree: Ukraine must vote
Russia demands elections before any peace deal is signed. The U.S. is also warming to the idea. Reports suggest a three-stage plan: ceasefire, elections, and then a peace agreement.
Zelenskyy’s term was supposed to end in May 2024. Elections were planned for April but were postponed indefinitely. Ukraine’s constitution forbids elections under martial law, which has been in place since the war began.
Zelenskyy’s popularity plummets during war
His approval rating once soared to 90%. Now, it hovers around 50%. Many fear he could lose if elections happen soon. Former U.S. official Keith Kellogg recently suggested elections could take place by year’s end, sparking outrage in Kyiv.
He responded sharply to Kellogg’s comments, insisting foreign officials do not understand Ukraine’s reality. “It is very important for Kellogg to come to Ukraine,” he said. His statement signals growing tension between Kyiv and Washington.
Critics warn early elections benefit Russia
Analysts warn elections before a peace deal would destabilize Ukraine. “The only person who benefits is Putin,” said Atlantic Council’s Andrew D’Anieri. Russia has a history of using elections to spread chaos in foreign countries.
Ex-President Petro Poroshenko recently claimed elections will happen on October 26. However, Davyd Arakhamia, a top Zelenskyy ally, immediately denied this. He reiterated that no elections will take place until at least six months after martial law ends.
Zelensky faces strong opposition in possible vote
Poroshenko, once a staunch opponent of wartime elections, is now a potential challenger. Another strong rival is General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Zelenskyy fired him last year in a controversial move. Zaluzhnyi had claimed the war was at a stalemate, angering Kyiv.
Experts warn that Russia will likely try to manipulate the vote. “They will run secret operations to install a pro-Russian leader,” said intelligence expert Rebekah Koffler. However, Ukraine has banned pro-Russian parties and stripped lawmakers with Russian ties of citizenship.
Zelenskyy’s key backer faces legal trouble
One of his biggest financial supporters, billionaire Ihor Kolomoyski, has been indicted for fraud in both the U.S. and Ukraine. His absence could weaken Zelenskyy’s campaign.
Despite Russian interference, a pro-Kremlin candidate is unlikely to win. “All leading candidates are pro-Western,” said D’Anieri. Professor Henry Hale added that only figures like Zaluzhnyi pose a real threat to Zelenskyy.
Some experts believe an early election could actually help Zelensky. Even critics might vote for him to avoid uncertainty. “Many see him as the symbol of resistance,” said Hale. However, if peace is secured first, the competition could be fierce.
Will Zelensky win? The answer remains unclear
If elections are held before a peace deal, Zelenskyy has a strong chance. But if Ukraine votes after peace is secured, his future is uncertain. One thing is clear: his path to re-election is far from guaranteed.
