A newly discovered asteroid, YR4 2024, has sent shockwaves through the scientific community as experts warn that it has a small but real chance of colliding with Earth—or even the Moon—within the next decade.
Scientists calculate potential destruction
Dr. David Rankin, operations manager at the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, has determined that asteroid YR4 2024 has a 2% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid, which is about the size of the Leaning Tower of Pisa, could release an explosion equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT—powerful enough to obliterate a city the size of Washington, D.C.
An alarming simulation by animator Alvaro Gracia Montoya visualizes the potential devastation, depicting the asteroid as it crashes into a metropolis, turning it into a wasteland within seconds. NASA, meanwhile, has ranked YR4 as its most concerning interstellar threat, giving it a 2.3% probability of impact.
The Moon may be in danger too
Rankin also warns that the asteroid has a 0.3% chance of colliding with the Moon. Unlike Earth, the Moon has no atmosphere to shield it, meaning YR4 would hit at approximately 30,000 miles per hour. Scientists estimate that such an impact would generate an explosion 343 times the size of the Hiroshima bomb and create a crater as large as 6,500 feet in diameter.
Fortunately, Earth would likely be unaffected by a potential Moon impact, aside from some minor ejected debris. Rankin reassures the public that while the impact would be highly visible from Earth, it poses no significant direct threat.
Can we stop the asteroid?
Experts fear there may not be enough time to intervene if YR4 is indeed on a collision course with Earth. UK volcanologist Robin George Andrews has raised concerns that NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) system, which successfully altered the path of an asteroid in 2022, may not be effective in this case.
“With only a few years to act, we could accidentally deflect it just enough to make it hit a different part of Earth instead of avoiding impact altogether,” Andrews warned.
NASA has now enlisted the James Webb Space Telescope to study YR4 more closely and gather critical data on its size and potential impact force.
No need to panic—yet
Despite the alarming possibilities, Rankin assures the public that disaster is far from certain. “As of now, there is still a 97.9% chance of a miss with respect to Earth,” he stated. “This asteroid is nothing to lose sleep over.”
Still, with the growing focus on planetary defense, scientists are keeping a close eye on YR4 as 2032 approaches.
