Belarusian opposition activists and Western diplomats publicly criticized an orchestrated election that further solidifies the long-standing authoritarian regime of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has governed the nation for over three decades. The exiled leader of the opposition dismissed the election results as “sheer nonsense.”
According to the Central Election Commission, Lukashenko secured nearly 87% of the votes in the election held on Sunday, following a campaign in which all four of his nominal challengers praised his governance. The opposition, which primarily consists of individuals either imprisoned or forced into exile because of Lukashenko’s oppressive measures against dissent and free expression, condemned the election as fraudulent, reminiscent of the previous election in 2020 that ignited widespread protests across the nation of 9 million.
Since those events, approximately 65,000 individuals have been detained, with many facing physical abuse, sparking widespread condemnation and sanctions from Western countries. The European Union swiftly rejected the election results, labeling them illegitimate and threatening additional sanctions.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock remarked that the election failed to provide voters with any real choice, describing it as “a bitter day for all those who long for freedom and democracy.” She highlighted the dire situation where people endure daily oppression and human rights abuses instead of enjoying free and fair elections. The EU, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand released a joint statement denouncing the elections as a farce, emphasizing that any election conducted under ongoing repression, marked by civil rights suppressions and arbitrary arrests, cannot be considered legitimate.
These nations announced plans to impose coordinated sanctions against Lukashenko’s government. The UK and Canada jointly sanctioned several individuals, including officials from the Interior Ministry, prison administrators, and three Belarusian defense firms.
Since taking power in 1994, Lukashenko has maintained a tight grip on the country. His regime has benefited from political backing and financial aid from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has also been in power for 25 years, a relationship that helped Lukashenko withstand the protests of 2020.
In 2022, Lukashenko allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for their invasion of Ukraine and hosted some tactical nuclear weapons from Russia. Putin has since congratulated Lukashenko on his “convincing victory,” a sentiment echoed by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Some analysts believe that Lukashenko, anticipating the potential for mass protests amid economic difficulties and ongoing fighting in Ukraine, deliberately scheduled the election for January, thereby reducing the likelihood of widespread civil unrest.
Many top opposition figures have either fled abroad or languish in prison. Activists estimate that almost 1,300 political prisoners are currently held, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, the founder of the Viasna Human Rights Center. Despite ongoing repression, Lukashenko has granted pardons to more than 250 people since July while simultaneously arresting hundreds more in a bid to silence dissent through targeting friends and family of political prisoners.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a prominent opposition leader in exile who fled Belarus after opposing Lukashenko in 2020, condemned the election beforehand and urged voters to invalidate all listed candidates. Following the vote, she dismissed the official results as “sheer nonsense,” asserting that Lukashenko would not succeed in deceiving either the international community or the Belarusian populace, which continues to live in fear of repression.
Tsikhanouskaya asserted that as long as Lukashenko and Putin exert control over Belarus, the region will continuously face security threats. Pavel Latushka, another notable opposition figure living abroad, commented on Lukashenko’s attempts to re-establish relations with the West by releasing some political prisoners and reportedly offering to facilitate peace discussions regarding Ukraine. He noted that it is crucial to maintain sanctions to compel Lukashenko to moderate his repressive actions.
Latushka further suggested that the condition of Belarus’ economy could deteriorate, increasing the pressure on Lukashenko to seek relief from sanctions for economic stabilization. He indicated that the Belarusian leader is aware of the tough economic landscape, emphasizing that without additional Kremlin support, he would struggle to balance the economy.
On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Belarus had “unilaterally” released an imprisoned American woman, identified as Anastassia Nuhfer, though details around her case remain undisclosed. Valery Karbalevich, an independent analyst, expressed skepticism about Lukashenko relaxing his repressive measures but anticipated negotiations with Western powers for alleviating sanctions by potentially releasing more prisoners.
Karbalevich suggested that Lukashenko’s severe internal repression and allegiance to Russia’s military actions in Ukraine have rendered him a subordinate to the Kremlin. He speculated that following the election, Lukashenko would endeavor to regain legitimacy from the West to alleviate his isolation and reverse Western sanctions.
