The face of President Alexander Lukashenko adorned campaign posters throughout Belarus on Sunday as the nation conducted a tightly controlled election, effectively ensuring that the 70-year-old leader would secure yet another term, following his three decades in power.
“Needed!” declared the posters featuring Lukashenko with his hands clasped. This phrase echoed the sentiments expressed by groups of voters in campaign videos who were allegedly asked if they wanted him to continue serving.
In a statement released at night by the Central Election Commission, Lukashenko reportedly won a staggering 87% of the votes.
However, his adversaries—many imprisoned or in exile due to his relentless suppression of dissent—label this election a farce, reminiscent of the one in 2020 that incited months of unprecedented protests in Belarus, a country of 9 million inhabitants.
Lukashenko’s crackdown during the protests resulted in over 65,000 arrests, with numerous individuals suffering beatings, prompting international condemnation and sanctions.
Earning the moniker “Europe’s Last Dictator,” Lukashenko has held power since 1994, taking over just two years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. His governance has heavily relied on subsidies and support from Russia.
In 2022, he permitted Moscow to use Belarus as a launching ground for its invasion of Ukraine and has even hosted some tactical Russian nuclear arms; nevertheless, he campaigned on the premise of “Peace and security,” claiming to have spared Belarus from the ravages of war.
“It’s preferable to have a dictatorship like in Belarus rather than a democracy like Ukraine,” Lukashenko bluntly stated.
Responding to the specter of renewed electoral unrest, Lukashenko hurriedly arranged the election for January, aware that fewer citizens would hit the streets during this winter month compared to August, when protests were more likely. His competition consisted mainly of nominal opponents.
According to the official reports made public in the early hours of Monday, Lukashenko scored 86.82% of the votes, surpassing his nearest rival, who received only 3.21%. The Central Election Commission noted that 3.60% of the votes were spoiled.
In the previous election in 2020, Lukashenko was reported to have achieved 80.10% of the vote.
“The trauma from the 2020 protests was so significant that Lukashenko opted for the safest course this time around, turning the electoral process into what felt more like a special operation for retaining power rather than an actual election,” commented Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich.
Despite repeated claims that he was not holding onto power and would “quietly and calmly” pass it to the next generation, Lukashenko’s actions tell a different story.
His son Nikolai, who is 20 years old, made rounds across the country giving interviews, signing autographs, and performing at campaign events. There has been no public mention of Lukashenko’s health, although he has been seen struggling to walk and appeared to speak in a strained manner.
“The issue of succession only comes to the forefront when a leader is preparing to step aside. However, Lukashenko is not planning to resign,” said Karbalevich.
Many of his top political foes have either fled or are incarcerated, with the country currently holding nearly 1,300 political prisoners, including Ales Bialiatski, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and founder of the Viasna Human Rights Center.
Since July, although Lukashenko has pardoned over 250 individuals, the regime has intensified its campaign against dissent by making further arrests, targeting relatives of political prisoners.
According to Viasna, 188 people were detained last month alone. Activists and financial supporters of opposition groups faced summons from authorities, compelling them to sign documents warning against participating in unauthorized protests.
Lukashenko’s four challengers on the ballot remained loyal to him, with Communist Party candidate Sergei Syrankov, recounting, “I’m entering the race not against, but together with Lukashenko, ready to serve as his vanguard.” Syrankov advocated for criminalizing LGBTQ+ activities and for restoring monuments to Soviet leader Josef Stalin.
Alexander Khizhnyak, leading the Republican Party of Labor and Justice, pledged to prevent disturbances similar to those seen in 2020. Oleg Gaidukevich, the Liberal Democratic Party head, echoed support for Lukashenko during the last election, encouraging fellow candidates to unsettle his opponents.
The fourth candidate, Hanna Kanapatskaya, who managed 1.7% of the votes in 2020, claimed to be the “only democratic alternative to Lukashenko,” offering to advocate for the release of political prisoners but cautioning supporters against over-enthusiasm.
In exile, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya described the recent election as “a senseless farce, a ritual dictated by Lukashenko.”
She advised voters to invalidate all candidates on the ballot, urging global leaders not to acknowledge the outcome from a nation where independent media and opposition have been eradicated, and jails are overflowing with political prisoners.
“The repression has escalated as this sham vote draws near, yet Lukashenko maintains the illusion that vast crowds are still rallying outside his residence,” she claimed.
Rejecting the legitimacy of the election, the European Union announced its intention to impose additional sanctions.
“The recent sham election in Belarus was neither free nor fair,” stated EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas alongside EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos.
After casting his ballot in Minsk, with his white Pomeranian dog in tow, Lukashenko remarked that he sought neither recognition nor endorsement from the EU.
“To me, the most crucial factor is that the people of Belarus acknowledge these elections and that they conclude peacefully, just as they began,” he asserted.
During a lengthy press conference, Lukashenko did not dismiss the prospect of seeking another term in 2030.
Media freedom organization Reporters Without Borders lodged a complaint against him with the International Criminal Court, citing an intense crackdown on free speech that resulted in 397 journalist arrests since 2020, with 43 currently imprisoned.
Concerns about vote tampering loom large.
The Central Election Commission reported 6.8 million eligible voters, despite around 500,000 having left the country and being unable to participate in the election. Polls closed at local time 8 p.m. (GMT 1700), with officials claiming a record turnout of 85.70%, though independent verification was lacking.
The early voting era that commenced on Tuesday has reportedly made it easier for irregularities to occur, with ballot boxes initially unguarded. In a significant week, a record 41.81% of voters participated in early voting. Meanwhile, Viasna activists highlighted widespread internet issues nationwide, alleging the government blocked VPN access, a common tool for circumventing censorship.
Polling locations removed the curtains from around ballot boxes, and voters were prohibited from photographing their ballots, a measure intended to counteract strategies from the opposition that aimed at preventing vote manipulation.
Prior to the election, police conducted extensive training exercises. One video from the Interior Ministry depicted riot police in helmets beating their shields in preparation for potential crowd dispersals while another showed an officer detaining an individual posing as a voter near a ballot box.
Lukashenko’s backing for the conflict in Ukraine has strained Belarus’ relationships with both the U.S. and the EU, ending his previous maneuvering to gain more subsidies from Russia.
He referred to the deployment of Russian nuclear arms in Belarus as a form of ensuring peace and expressed plans to visit Moscow should he be reelected.
“Until 2020, Lukashenko was able to balance his ties between Russia and the West. However, with Belarus essentially becoming a satellite of Russia now, this latest election applies even more pressure to tether the Belarusian leader to the Kremlin,” remarked Artyom Shraybman, an expert on Belarus at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center.
Following the election, Lukashenko might attempt to lessen his reliance on Russia by reaching out to the West once more, he speculated.
