Republican attempts to restrict the inclusion of individuals residing in the U.S. without legal status from the census counts used to determine congressional representation have resurfaced. Four Republican state attorneys general have initiated a lawsuit aimed at modifying the census conduct ahead of the upcoming 2030 count, shortly after President Trump commenced his second term in office.
Upon taking office, Trump took immediate action by issuing an executive order to annul a directive from the Biden administration, which may pave the way for initiatives aimed at revising the upcoming census. This push could be supported by the GOP-led Congress, especially since Republican Representative Chuck Edwards from North Carolina has recently reintroduced a bill proposing the inclusion of a citizenship question in the census.
During his prior term, Trump had issued an order intending to exclude undocumented individuals from the 2020 census figures that determine the distribution of congressional seats and Electoral College votes among states. Furthermore, he also required the collection of citizenship information through administrative means. A Republican expert in redistricting had suggested that shifting from a total population count to one based solely on the citizen voting-age population for congressional and legislative redistricting could favor Republican and non-Hispanic white voters.
These actions followed a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court which blocked Trump’s earlier attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census form. The court ruled that the administration’s rationale for such a question appeared to be artificially constructed.
Both of Trump’s orders were rescinded when President Biden assumed office in January 2021, before the U.S. Census Bureau released the figures from the 2020 count, which is the country’s largest statistical organization. “There is uncertainty surrounding how aggressively the administration and Congress will seek to manipulate the statistical apparatus to their advantage,” said historian Margo Anderson, commenting on Trump’s return. “It’s not necessarily due to a lack of desire, but because they have other priorities within the national government.”
According to the Fourteenth Amendment, the census must account for “the whole number of persons in each state” for the purpose of apportioning congressional seats and Electoral College votes based on population. This data also influences the allocation of approximately $2.8 trillion in federal funds to states for infrastructure, healthcare, and other initiatives.
The lawsuit filed by the attorneys general from Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, and West Virginia demands the exclusion of undocumented and temporarily present individuals from the apportionment numbers. They argue that Ohio and West Virginia lost congressional representation and electoral votes due to the inclusion of unauthorized individuals in the 2020 census. Moreover, they assert that if this situation persists, the four states could lose further representation after the 2030 census.
However, recent projections from Election Data Services indicate that these four states are not expected to lose any seats after the upcoming census. Instead, it appears that California, New York, and Illinois—states with Democratic majorities—are anticipated to lose the most representation.
The Census Bureau did not provide an immediate response to inquiries regarding the lawsuit.
Critics of the citizenship question on the 2020 census claimed it deterred participation from immigrant communities and those without legal status, leading to inaccuracies in the count. A 2023 simulation by the Census Bureau suggested that a considerable number of noncitizens were not included in the counts executed during the last year of Trump’s first administration, coinciding with the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Experts in demography and research speculate that should Trump return to power, he may seek to reverse or modify initiatives put forth by the Biden administration concerning statistical agencies. These changes could include consolidating questions about race and ethnicity into one question and potentially introducing a category for individuals of Middle Eastern and North African descent.
Moreover, anticipated inquiries relating to sexual orientation and gender identity on a major survey reflecting various aspects of American life may be discarded. Concerns have arisen regarding the possibility of Trump politicizing the Census Bureau by appointing numerous political affiliates with little to no relevant experience, similar to practices seen during his initial term. The Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” policy framework for a Republican presidency endorsed the placement of “committed political appointees and like-minded career employees” in key bureau roles to advocate for a conservative agenda.
“They could easily repeat the same errors made previously for political ends,” remarked Andrew Beveridge, a sociology expert at Queens College and the CUNY Graduate School and University Center. “I expect he will pursue similar strategies as before.”
