President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will once again withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, a significant international accord aimed at combating climate change. This decision, which coincided with his swearing-in for a second term, marks a continuation of actions taken in 2017 when Trump initially pulled the U.S. out of the agreement. The Paris agreement seeks to limit global temperature increases to ideally 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels, or at least to keep them below a 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) increase.
The Paris accord is voluntary, allowing countries to set their own greenhouse gas emission reduction targets based on their domestic energy consumption, particularly coal, oil, and natural gas. These targets are meant to become progressively stricter, with a new set of plans due from countries by February 2025. The previous Biden administration proposed a goal of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by over 60% by the year 2035.
Laurence Tubiana, the CEO of the European Climate Foundation and one of the key architects of the Paris agreement, expressed disappointment over the U.S’s planned withdrawal, stating that actions to address climate change are more powerful than the political actions of any single country. According to Tubiana, the global climate landscape has changed significantly since 2017, noting the strong economic drive towards clean energy transition that the U.S. has both influenced and benefitted from, but which it now risks losing. She highlighted that by 2035, the market for essential clean energy technologies is projected to reach over $2 trillion.
Tubiana also pointed out the devastating effects of climate change, referencing the recent wildfires in Los Angeles as a stark reminder that climate issues affect all nations, including the U.S. Conversely, Gina McCarthy, who served as the climate advisor under President Biden, argued that if Trump is sincere about making America a leader in the global economy and energy independence while creating quality jobs, he should prioritize the growth of the clean energy sector that is benefitting consumers across the nation.
Globally, temperatures are currently 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 degrees Celsius) higher than they were in the mid-1800s, and climate agencies reported that last year’s temperatures had crossed the 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit threshold, making it the hottest year recorded. The withdrawal from the Paris agreement is set to take one year, with Trump’s first departure from the accord finalized shortly after the 2020 election.
The previous U.S. exit from the agreement shocked many countries worldwide; however, Alden Meyer, a climate negotiations analyst, noted that not one country followed the U.S. out. Instead, other nations reaffirmed their commitment to combating climate change, alongside various stakeholders within the U.S., including businesses and local governments. Despite this, experts expressed concerns about a retreat of U.S. leadership in the climate arena, particularly amidst an ongoing trend of rising global temperatures and increasingly severe weather events.
Climate activist Bill McKibben remarked that the U.S. will not lead the fight against climate change, the most pressing challenge humanity faces, and suggested that the best outcome in the near future might be if Washington does not hinder the efforts of other nations. Recent polling shows that public sentiment is largely against the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris agreement, with around half of Americans opposing such an action. Notably, even among Republicans, there is not overwhelming support for exiting the accord.
While China has overtaken the U.S. as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide annually, the U.S. remains the second largest contributor to emissions, releasing 4.9 billion metric tons in 2023, an 11% decrease from a decade ago. However, the long-lasting nature of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means that historically, the U.S. has contributed more of this gas than any other country since 1950. Experts fear that if Trump’s administration moves further away from climate commitments, it could embolden other nations, particularly China, to relax their own commitments to reducing emissions.
Nevertheless, Simon Stiell, the U.N. climate change chief, remains hopeful that the economic potential associated with clean energy will be embraced by the U.S., warning that failing to do so would divert wealth to competing economies and exacerbate climate-related disasters. Stiell emphasized that the door to the Paris Agreement remains open, welcoming constructive engagement from all countries in the ongoing effort against climate change.
