BEIRUT — The Lebanese parliament is scheduled to meet on Thursday as it attempts to elect a new president for the 13th time amid a prolonged presidential vacuum that has persisted for over two years. Analysts suggest there might be a possibility of success this time around.
This parliamentary session follows a fragile ceasefire agreement that put an end to a 14-month conflict involving Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. In light of this, the leaders of Lebanon are actively seeking international aid for reconstruction efforts.
The key candidates in the presidential race include Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese army, who is perceived as the bevorzuged choice for both the United States and Saudi Arabia. Recently, Suleiman Frangieh, previously supported by Hezbollah, announced his withdrawal from the race and threw his support behind Aoun.
The Lebanese military plays a crucial role in maintaining the ceasefire, being responsible for overseeing the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s fighters and arms from southern Lebanon.
Understanding the prolonged vacuum can be attributed to the country’s intricate sectarian power-sharing system, which frequently leads to political stalemate. Lebanon has experienced various extended presidential vacancies in the past; the longest lasted nearly two and a half years, between May 2014 and October 2016, concluding with the election of former President Michel Aoun.
During Aoun’s presidency, his Free Patriotic Movement party was considered the main Christian ally of the Shiite political faction Hezbollah, although this partnership has since deteriorated. After Aoun’s term expired in October 2022, Frangieh emerged as the Hezbollah-backed candidate, leading the Marada Movement, a party influential in northern Lebanon and known for its close ties with former Syrian president Bashar Assad.
While Joseph Aoun has not publicly declared his candidacy, he has been widely acknowledged as Frangieh’s primary competitor. Meanwhile, various political factions opposed to Hezbollah have proposed other candidates.
The last attempt at a presidential vote took place in June 2023, which fell apart when Hezbollah’s bloc walked out after the initial round of voting, where Frangieh did not secure enough support against opposition candidate Jihad Azour, leading to a loss of quorum in the 128-member parliament.
Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, remarked that the length of time taken to elect a president reflects parliament’s divisions and its failure to adhere to constitutional mandates that require continuous electoral sessions until a president is established.
The situation was further complicated by parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah, who has been accused of utilizing parliamentary procedures to stymie consensus, halting sessions whenever he sensed a majority forming in favor of unwelcome candidates.
Imad Salamey, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University, highlighted the reliance on foreign aid in Lebanon, indicating that international agreements often influence the outcomes of presidential elections.
Amid this deadlock, a five-member committee composed of representatives from the United States, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar has been engaging in discussions to facilitate resolution for the presidential stalemate.
The leading candidates in this electoral contest are:
— Joseph Aoun, 60, stands out as the likely frontrunner since Frangieh’s withdrawal. He has held his military commander position since March 2017 and had his retirement extended amid the conflict with Israel and Hezbollah. Although he has not openly declared his intentions for presidency, he is regarded as the favored choice of the United States, which is known for its substantial financial support to the Lebanese army. However, Lebanon’s constitution restricts a sitting army chief from becoming president, requiring Aoun to navigate several procedural challenges.
— Jihad Azour is another noted candidate supported by anti-Hezbollah factions. He is an established economist who has worked as the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund since 2017 and served as Lebanon’s finance minister from 2005 to 2008.
— Elias al-Baysari, the acting head of Lebanon’s General Security agency, has a history within national security dating back to 1986, with roles in various security positions throughout his career. He is also perceived to have proximity to Hezbollah.
As for the likelihood of electing a president during the Thursday session, the withdrawal of Frangieh significantly boosts Aoun’s chances of success, according to analysts. The dynamics within parliament have shifted since the previous attempt at voting.
Experts suggest Hezbollah finds itself in a weakened position due to growing tensions with Israel, challenges in Syria, and increasing domestic unrest. In light of this, the party requires the cover of a functional government to facilitate reconstruction and secure international assistance.
“Lebanon today effectively operates under some level of foreign oversight,” commented Young, noting that the nation depends on U.S. support to manage Israeli incursions and ensure compliance with the ceasefire agreement while recognizing Saudi Arabia’s influence over Gulf funding for Lebanon’s reconstruction, particularly in Shiite regions.
