WASHINGTON — Following the violent assault by Hamas on Israel, FBI Director Christopher Wray expressed concerns that the resulting turmoil in the Middle East could empower individuals or extremist groups to conduct attacks within the United States.
Months later, after over 140 people were killed by an affiliate of the Islamic State group during an attack on a Russian concert venue, Wray reiterated his fears of a potential similar attack within U.S. borders. The warnings about a rising terrorism threat have been underscored by an Army veteran’s actions in New Orleans, where he drove a pickup truck into celebratory crowds on New Year’s, causing significant casualties. However, this perpetrator did not collaborate with any international operatives and was not part of a larger conspiracy, highlighting a deep-rooted concern about homegrown extremists who radicalize independently and engage in mass violence under the influence of foreign groups.
Christopher Costa, a former senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council, remarked on the current threat landscape, stating that it has never appeared more troubling, influenced not only by counterterrorism issues but also by threats from state-sponsored actors. He discussed how the myriad grievances that led Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the attacker, to commit violence reflect those of other attackers. Jabbar faced personal challenges, such as financial difficulties and relationship issues, and his pre-attack video indicated suicidal thoughts toward his family. He acted within a broader context of a world filled with instability, exacerbated by events like the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks and the recent upheaval in Syria, resulting in more individuals susceptible to radicalization.
The tragic event in New Orleans, which resulted in 14 deaths, marks one of the deadliest IS-inspired attacks on American soil since the 2016 Orlando nightclub shooting that claimed 49 lives. During that period, the FBI was alarmed by a surge in attacks by lone actors influenced by ISIS propaganda, with some even attempting to travel to the group’s territory in the Middle East. The threat persists, as evident by the FBI’s recent arrest of an Afghan man in Oklahoma planning an attack inspired by the Islamic State for Election Day.
Recent global developments, including Iranian plots to assassinate public figures, the aftermath of the Afghan government’s collapse, and the ongoing chaos in the Middle East have intensified public concern about potential violence from those with ties to extremist groups entering the U.S. Despite the numerous threats, Wray stated in August that he found it hard to recall a time when such a variety of threats were concurrently elevated.
The New Orleans attack, executed by a lone assailant without any guidance from overseas, underscores the unpredictable nature of the terrorism threat and the significant challenges law enforcement faces in stopping these kinds of attacks. Nicholas Rasmussen, the counterterrorism coordinator for the Department of Homeland Security, noted that thwarting actions from individuals without any connection to overseas operations presents far more difficulties than dealing with those actively communicating with foreign terrorists or consuming extremist content online.
Jabbar, who was killed during an altercation with the police, had not previously been flagged by law enforcement, but evidence of premeditation was discovered, including suspected bomb-making materials in his rental property and home. Officials disclosed that his chosen method of attack—driving a vehicle into crowds—reflects a preferred tactic among ISIS affiliates. Moreover, a pro-ISIS media unit had recently encouraged such violence at New Year’s celebrations, adding to the alarming context.
As the threat landscape evolves, the FBI will face a significant leadership change with the anticipated confirmation of Kash Patel, a nominee who has challenged the FBI’s national security protocols and proposed separating its intelligence operations from crime-fighting efforts. The implications of the New Orleans incident on Patel’s strategy, if confirmed, remain uncertain.
The ongoing instability in Syria and its potential ramifications for the Islamic State’s resurgence could pose substantial national security risks. The recent ousting of President Assad and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a significant force in Syria generate mixed feelings; while some see a positive shift, others fear a power vacuum that ISIS might exploit.
Additionally, the Turkish military actions against Kurdish forces, allied with the U.S. in combating ISIS, may further complicate the situation, leading to a resurgence of the extremist group. Despite the realities of such a landscape, predicting a New Year’s attack on American soil remains difficult, with events of this nature being significantly rarer compared to regions with ongoing conflict. However, the simplicity of potential attack methods, like renting a vehicle, keeps the threat accessible to those intent on causing harm, as noted by experts.
