A recent survey indicates that an overwhelming majority of Republicans express confidence in the legitimacy of the vote count for the 2024 elections, a notable shift from prevailing doubts among GOP voters following Donald Trump’s loss in 2020. This change comes after years of misinformation from Trump regarding the 2020 election results, which had left many Republican voters skeptical about the integrity of U.S. elections.
The poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that around 60% of Republicans now feel they have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in the accuracy of last year’s presidential election results nationwide. This statistic contrasts sharply with a similar poll from October, which revealed that only 20% of Republicans held such confidence levels. Moreover, the proportion of Republicans confident in their own state’s vote counts has surged to approximately 66%, up from around 40% prior to the election.
This boost in confidence has helped elevate the overall American sentiment regarding the election’s accuracy, with about 60% of respondents now expressing strong trust in the determination of the vote count — a rise from about 50% in October. This marks a significant shift compared to the atmosphere four years prior, when Trump supporters, influenced by his unfounded claims of a stolen election, stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, aiming to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden’s presidency. At that time, nearly two-thirds of Republicans expressed the belief that Biden had not been legitimately elected.
Such disbelief lingered throughout Biden’s time in office and persisted until the latest election, as Trump continuously cast doubt on the trustworthiness of U.S. elections, even claiming concern over vote integrity on Election Day before it became evident he would win. Following Trump’s recent electoral success, however, skepticism among Republicans about the security of elections at all levels, including local election officials, has significantly diminished.
There was no indication of issues prior to the latest election, despite Trump’s attempts to create a narrative of potential voter fraud. The integrity of the 2020 election results had already been reaffirmed through various audits, recounts, and reviews, many led by Republican officials including members of Trump’s own administration.
After the 2020 elections, threats targeting local election officials intensified, prompting many experienced administrators to resign. Fortunately, the recent poll suggests a potential easing of these tensions, with approximately 70% of Americans now expressing strong confidence that their local election officials will accurately count votes in the upcoming 2024 elections, an increase from about 60% in October. This increase is predominantly attributed to Republican respondents, with around 70% expressing strong faith in local vote counts compared to about half in October.
In contrast, confidence among Democrats regarding the integrity of the national vote count saw a decline, dropping from 70% to 60%, although there was no significant change in their confidence regarding state vote counts. Nonetheless, this dip in Democratic confidence does not approach the level of skepticism exhibited by Republicans following Trump’s defeat in 2020. Notably, Vice President Kamala Harris accepted her defeat to Trump the day after the elections, and there was no organized Democratic effort to block Trump’s ascension to the presidency akin to the attempts by certain conservatives to contest Biden’s victory in 2020.
The poll conducted from December 5 to 9, 2024, surveyed 1,251 adults using a representative sample from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of error for the overall adult sample is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
