KYIV, Ukraine — On Wednesday, Ukraine ceased the flow of Russian gas to European customers utilizing its pipeline system following the expiration of a pre-war transit agreement at the end of 2024. This decision comes nearly three years into Russia’s extensive invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the invasion launched by Russian forces in February 2022, natural gas continued to flow through Ukrainian pipelines, which were established during the Soviet era. This arrangement allowed Russia’s state-owned company Gazprom to profit from gas sales while Ukraine collected transit fees. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko announced the halt of transit for “national security” reasons. He characterized this event as historic, illustrating that Russia would lose significant markets and suffer financial setbacks. Halushchenko suggested that Europe has already acknowledged the necessity to reduce reliance on Russian gas.
At a recent summit in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that his country would not permit Moscow to exploit the pipelines for profit at the expense of Ukrainian lives. Nevertheless, Zelenskyy hinted that gas flow could resume if payments to Russia were stopped until the conclusion of the conflict. Gazprom responded, claiming a lack of “technical and legal possibility” to send gas through Ukraine due to Kyiv’s refusal to renew the transit agreement.
Prior to the war, Russia supplied a substantial 40% of the European Union’s pipeline natural gas. Gas was transmitted through four primary networks: one beneath the Baltic Sea, another via Belarus and Poland, a third through Ukraine, and a fourth beneath the Black Sea to Bulgaria. In the aftermath of the invasion, Russia scaled back supplies through various lines, citing disagreements over payment methods. Energy insecurity arose as Europe faced significant challenges due to Russia’s actions. To mitigate the crisis, countries such as Germany invested billions in floating terminals for importing liquefied natural gas, while consumers reduced usage due to soaring prices. Norway and the United States emerged as alternative primary suppliers.
The European response to the cutoffs has been characterized as energy blackmail, leading to strategic plans for completely eliminating the import of Russian gas by 2027. Zelenskyy noted that halting transit routes would cause Moscow to lose access to “one of the most profitable and geographically accessible markets” for its gas. He also accused Russia of resorting to manipulative tactics against its partners. Data from the EU Commission indicates that Russia’s share in the EU’s pipeline gas market sharply declined to approximately 8% in 2023. Notably, Ukraine’s route supplied gas to countries like Austria and Slovakia, which have sought alternative sources for their energy needs.
Austria’s OMV faced a gas supply suspension from Gazprom due to contractual issues, yet flows through Ukraine continued for other customers. Slovakia has secured gas deals with alternatives like Azerbaijan and the U.S. liquefied natural gas via pipelines connected through Poland. Moldova, an EU candidate country previously reliant on Russian gas, is facing severe challenges as it braces for a tough winter and potential power shortages due to the gas halt. Gazprom also plans to suspend supplies to Moldova starting January 1, citing unpaid debts, a claim that Moldova disputes.
Recently, the breakaway region of Transnistria, which hosts Russian troops and relied on Russian gas, faced sudden heating and hot water supply cuts. Local officials advised residents to gather in more insulated areas of their homes and utilize electric heaters. Moldova’s parliament has declared a state of emergency in the energy sector because of fears that ongoing gas shortages might lead to a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, which has long depended on Russian energy resources.
Energy weaponization by Moscow has been frequently accused by Moldova, Ukraine, and EU politicians. Regarding the cessation of gas transit, Poland’s Foreign Minister referred to Ukraine’s decision as a significant victory for those opposed to the Kremlin’s tactics. The Slovak Prime Minister acknowledged that halting the gas flows through Ukraine would be detrimental not only to Slovakia but also the entire EU, while Russia would remain largely unaffected.
Despite these developments, Moscow can still supply gas to Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia via the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. As Russian supplies diminish, European countries have accelerated their energy grid integrations with Ukraine to enhance energy security. Recently, a private energy firm in Ukraine received its first shipment of U.S. liquefied natural gas, marking a progressive step towards reducing dependence on Russian energy.
On a separate note, on New Year’s Day, Russian drone strikes targeted Kyiv, resulting in casualties and property damage, further complicating an already tense situation. Additionally, recent attacks in Kherson led to injuries, emphasizing the ongoing security concerns amid the energy crisis.
