BANGKOK — On Tuesday, Myanmar’s military regime revealed the preliminary findings of a census conducted in October, indicating the nation’s population stands at approximately 51.3 million. This marks a slight decline from the previous official count of around 51.5 million recorded a decade ago.
The Ministry of Immigration and Population did not provide a direct explanation for this population decrease. It mentioned, however, that the census faced significant challenges, managing to be completed successfully in just under half of the country’s 330 townships due to increasing armed conflicts and other severe obstacles stemming from military rule since 2021.
State-run MRTV noted that an investigation into the reasons for this population decline will be included in the final census report, which is scheduled for release in 2025. Prior to the census, the ministry had estimated Myanmar’s population at about 56.2 million.
Notably, the report did not clarify whether this census accounted for the more than 700,000 ethnic Rohingya Muslims who fled to Bangladesh in 2017 to escape a violent crackdown by the armed forces in Myanmar. The problems encountered during the census operation reflect the military government’s loss of control in over half of the country’s territory, where ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy fighters are actively contesting military authority.
In disputed regions, some of the population counts were based on estimations derived from remote sensing methods, as indicated in the report. The turmoil in Myanmar has intensified since the military coup that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, under the pretext of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 elections, a claim disputed by independent observers.
The coup led to widespread protests, which were violently suppressed, giving rise to armed resistance and a state of civil war. Amidst this conflict, the military is increasingly on the defensive against various ethnic militias and numerous armed groups collectively known as the People’s Defense Force, dedicated to restoring democratic governance.
In past census years such as 1973, 1983, and 2014, conflicts were not as pervasive, making accurate population counts more attainable. The current situation is compounded by an estimated 3 million displaced individuals, according to United Nations reports, making it challenging to obtain precise figures.
Opponents of the military rule have encouraged non-cooperation with census activities, leading to various instances where census officials were physically attacked. Although the military has asserted that the census data will contribute to voter lists for a general election anticipated next year, the backdrop of ongoing civil war raises serious concerns about the legitimacy of the balloting process.
Critics maintain that the scheduled election, often framed as a democratic process, is primarily a strategy to legitimize the military’s power grab through electoral means. With civil liberties curtailed and the nation embroiled in conflict, the possibility of free and fair elections seems unlikely.
In July, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the military government’s leader, indicated that election efforts would be emphasized in regions under military control but failed to announce a specific date for the elections. Tuesday’s census report returned a population figure of 51,316,756. It highlighted that the census could not be completed in 58 townships and was only partially done in 127 townships due to security-related issues, while it was fully conducted in 145 townships.
The document outlined that the areas where the census was incomplete included regions occupied by ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy fighters located in northern Kachin, northeastern Shan, northwestern Chin, eastern Kayah, and western Rakhine states, in addition to parts of the central Magway, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions. The report also revealed that data collection was extended until the second week of December in certain areas due to transportation difficulties and security threats.
The government’s publication of this report claims to demonstrate a commitment to national reconciliation and inclusive socio-economic development, positioning it within a broader context of political and socio-economic reforms.
