WASHINGTON — Despite a robust unemployment rate and a rising stock market, a recent survey reveals that Democrats are increasingly pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy following Donald Trump’s election win.
Conversely, Republicans seem to maintain a more negative outlook on current economic conditions but express optimism about future growth, particularly with Trump’s return to the presidency on the horizon.
The findings from a recent poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicate that many Americans are judging the economy more by the political leadership rather than the actual economic indicators. This phenomenon has historically challenged President Joe Biden and presents a similar conundrum for Trump, suggesting he may face difficulties in converting economic policies into political success.
Approximately 70% of U.S. adults assess the economic situation as either poor or somewhat poor, an increase from 60% in October. This sentiment is primarily driven by self-identified Democrats, with only around 50% currently describing the economy as “good,” a marked decrease from about 60% in October.
Karen Claussen, 77, a resident of suburban Columbus, Ohio, expressed her concerns, saying, “If Trump implements his tariffs, prices will rise, and everything will become more expensive. Right now, I can’t see any hope — I’m quite worried.”
The ongoing economic pessimism illustrates a disconnect between commonly used metrics to evaluate economic performance and the sentiments expressed by the public.
Currently, the unemployment rate stands at a healthy 4.2%, and hiring remains steady. Inflation has receded from its peak in 2022, although progress has slowed in recent months. The stock market has seen gains not only under Biden but has further surged in anticipation of Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deregulation.
Interestingly, the poll, which reflects sentiments from the time Biden was still in office, shows that only 16% of Republicans believe the economy is doing well at the moment. However, there remains a strong belief among Republicans about better economic prospects in the coming years; about 70% are optimistic that 2025 will yield improved economic conditions compared to 2024.
According to the findings from November’s election, voters leaned toward Trump largely due to frustrations regarding rising inflation, a global issue that emerged from the pandemic and contributed to soaring costs for essentials like groceries, fuel, vehicles, and housing.
The latest poll indicates that nearly one-third of Americans are “extremely” or “very” worried about their ability to afford groceries in the near future. Further, about 30% express significant concern over being able to manage expenses related to holiday gifts, gas, and electricity.
Jeremie Spratley, a 39-year-old from Westland, Michigan, shared his struggles, noting, “With Christmas approaching, we’re trying our best to ensure our son can celebrate this year.” He mentioned that his family, who rely on disability support, is receiving reduced food assistance just as affordability becomes a critical issue. Despite questioning Trump’s commitment to the less fortunate, Spratley voted for him, realizing that any trickle-down benefit could be advantageous.
Households earning $50,000 or less report heightened anxiety regarding basic needs and end-of-year expenses compared to those with higher incomes. Nearly 50% of individuals within this income bracket expressed concerns about affording groceries, while around 40% share similar worries about gas, electricity, or holiday gifts.
Among Republicans already viewing the economy negatively, approximately 70% anticipate improved conditions in the coming year. In contrast, only about 40% of independents who view the economy as weak expect improvement, and roughly 10% of Democrats with a similar viewpoint are hopeful for a positive shift next year.
It’s not uncommon for Americans to alter their perceptions of the economy when a new president assumes office. For instance, Democrats’ perceptions of economic health saw a substantial increase from December 2020 to February 2021 following Biden’s inauguration. Only 15% believed the economy was “good” at the end of 2020, while this figure increased to 41% by February. Conversely, Republican optimism plummeted during the same period, with their positive perceptions dropping from about 70% to 35%. Overall, independents displayed minimal change in their opinions.
While Trump’s policy priorities remain uncertain beyond his bold statements, he has indicated potential universal tariffs against nations like Canada, Mexico, and China unless they reshape their policies in accordance with his demands. Additionally, he aims to reintroduce and expand segments of his 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire, an action that could introduce additional debt and potentially stymie economic growth.
For voters like 41-year-old Benjamin Lebert from Roanoke, Virginia, the essential factor is that Trump represents a shift from the current administration. He voted for Trump this year after not doing so in the past elections of 2016 and 2020, reflecting a desire for change.
“With Trump in office, maybe new things will happen that weren’t occurring under Joe Biden,” said Lebert.
The poll questioned 1,251 adults from December 5 to December 9, 2024, utilizing a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed for representative demographics of the U.S. population. The margin of error for the overall adult sample is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
