Insiders say Kamala Harris will run for California Governor, which would take her out President elections 2028

The political future of Vice President Kamala Harris is at a critical crossroads, with discussions intensifying about whether she should return to California to run for governor in 2026 or prepare for another presidential campaign in 2028. The decision comes after Harris’ historic yet challenging tenure as vice president and her recent loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 election, leaving her political trajectory in question.

The Decision at Hand: Governor or President?

Option 1: Running for Governor of California

California’s gubernatorial race in 2026 presents an appealing opportunity for Harris. Having been elected statewide three times as attorney general and U.S. senator, she has strong political roots in the state. Many potential contenders, such as Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and former Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins, have indicated they might step aside if Harris enters the race.

Pros of Running for Governor

1. Clear Path to Victory: Harris’ deep ties to California politics and her established voter base make her a strong contender.
2. A Powerful Role: The governorship would allow Harris to lead the world’s fifth-largest economy and tackle critical issues such as housing, homelessness, and climate change.
3. Resetting Her Political Image: Serving as governor could give Harris time to build a substantive record and reestablish her political reputation for potential future presidential runs in 2032 or beyond.

Cons of Running for Governor

1. Perceived Step Down: Some advisers view the governorship as a “consolation prize” rather than a stepping stone for higher office, potentially weakening her national image.
2. Timing Conflict: Winning in 2026 would require Harris to quickly shift focus to a presidential campaign, making it politically challenging to govern effectively while running for president in 2028.

Option 2: Preparing for a Presidential Run in 2028

Harris’ close advisers are divided on her prospects for another presidential run. While some believe she built enough goodwill during her 2024 campaign, others worry about the challenges of securing the Democratic nomination in a competitive field.

Pros of Running for President

1. Strong National Infrastructure: Harris’ 2024 campaign raised over $1 billion and created a valuable network of donors and supporters.
2. Historical Opportunities: Few Democrats could rival her historical significance and experience as a former vice president and presidential candidate.

Cons of Running for President

1. Skepticism Within the Party: Harris’ poorer-than-expected performance among key demographics, such as younger voters and Black voters, raises concerns about her electability.
2. Stronger Competition: Unlike 2024, Harris would face a crowded field of ambitious Democratic contenders, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who deferred to Biden and Harris last cycle.

Option 3: Exiting Electoral Politics

Some insiders suggest Harris could pivot away from elected office altogether. She could ink a lucrative book deal, lead an advocacy organization, or remain a prominent Democratic voice without the rigors of campaigning.

Political Dynamics and Historical Parallels

Harris’ decision is complicated by historical precedents and party dynamics:

• Richard Nixon Parallel: Nixon, another California senator-turned-vice president, lost his first presidential bid but rebounded after running for governor of California, ultimately winning the White House in 1968.
• Grover Cleveland Effect: Only Trump and Cleveland have returned to the presidency after a defeat, underscoring the difficulty of such a comeback.

The California Factor

California politics add another layer of complexity:

• Harris and Newsom have a longstanding rivalry, with each vying for influence in the state’s Democratic landscape.
• Newsom, who likely has presidential ambitions, may overshadow Harris if she runs for governor.
• Harris’ entry into the gubernatorial race could trigger a reshuffling of candidates for other statewide offices, with figures like Rick Caruso, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Katie Porter adjusting their strategies.

Conclusion

Kamala Harris faces a pivotal decision that will shape her political legacy. Running for governor could provide her with a powerful platform to address key issues and potentially rebuild her path to the presidency in a future cycle. However, foregoing the governor’s race to focus on 2028 would keep her presidential ambitions alive, albeit with significant risks in a competitive Democratic primary. Alternatively, stepping back from electoral politics could allow Harris to maintain influence without the pressures of office.

The next few months will be critical as Harris weighs her options, and the political world watches closely to see which path she chooses.