BANGKOK — A recent report from the United Nations indicates a modest decrease in opium production within Myanmar, which has emerged as the largest global supplier of the narcotic, a precursor to heroin. However, despite this reduction, experts caution about the potential for the drug trade to expand at an alarming rate in the future.
The Myanmar Opium Survey 2024, released by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), highlights a 4% decrease in the area under opium cultivation, now totaling 45,200 hectares (111,700 acres). Correspondingly, there has been an 8% drop in opium production, down to 995 metric tons, which is attributable to a 4% decrease in yields.
Last year, the UNODC reported that Myanmar had surpassed Afghanistan to become the leading opium producer globally following a drastic 95% reduction in Afghanistan’s opium cultivation due to a ban imposed by the Taliban after their 2021 takeover. Opium, derived from poppy flowers, serves as the foundation for both morphine and heroin production.
Following the 2021 military coup that ousted the government of Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar saw a resurgence in opium cultivation and production from 2021 to 2023. The UNODC pointed out that this trend is primarily related to the instability generated by the coup and the civil conflict that has ensued as a result of resistance to military authority.
Masood Karimipour, UNODC Regional Representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, indicated during a press conference centered on the survey’s findings that many farmers abandoned previous efforts to cease opium cultivation and reverted to it after experiencing years of relative stability. His comments were corroborated by a mix of ground reports and satellite data.
Experts from the UNODC are still trying to make sense of the implications arising from this shift in supply. Inshik Sim, a Research Officer with the UNODC, expressed concern that the global heroin supply chain has not fully adapted, suggesting that the scarcity of heroin may lead to increased cultivation by farmers in Myanmar to meet market demands.
As for 2024, the UNODC has reported that escalating violence and chaos may further limit opium production in regions such as Shan and Kachin due to displacement and movement restrictions affecting farmers.
However, U.N. specialists indicate that this does not imply an indefinite decline in production. “Worryingly, we are observing markers indicating that the ongoing conflict in Myanmar is an escalating concern,” Karimipour remarked. He continued by emphasizing that as governance and humanitarian challenges remain unresolved, more individuals may turn to opium farming as a necessity.
Farmers cited economic necessity as their primary motivation for returning to opium cultivation, a trend that is expected to worsen in the absence of alternate livelihoods. “It’s essential for the global community to assist farming communities and help them gain resilience away from the opium economy,” Karimipour stated, while also stressing the importance of monitoring the situation both in Myanmar and Afghanistan in terms of global heroin supply chains.
Northeastern Myanmar lies within the notorious “Golden Triangle,” where the borders of Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand converge. This area has a long history of opium and heroin production, largely due to the lack of effective government control over various ethnic militias, many of which are engaged in drug trafficking.
In recent years, as opium production faced declines, methamphetamine has emerged as a more predominant substance, eclipsing it in the region. The production and distribution of methamphetamine, in both tablet and crystal forms, have become more prevalent, as its industrial-scale manufacturing is less labor-intensive compared to opium cultivation, allowing for more efficient trafficking throughout Asia and the Pacific.
