Earth has just recorded its second-highest temperature for November in history, following only 2023, which strongly indicates that 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record, as reported by the European climate service Copernicus.
Last year was marked as the warmest ever due to the combined effects of human-induced climate change and an El Niño occurrence. This past summer also set records as the hottest yet, exemplified by Phoenix, which endured an astonishing 113 consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.7 Celsius). Given these trends, scientists expect 2024 to break previous annual temperature records.
In November, the global temperature averaged 14.10C (57.38F), compared to last year’s average of 14.98C (59F). Up until November, the average global temperature this year has been recorded at 0.14C (32F) higher than the same timeframe last year.
Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist from the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, who was not involved in the report, emphasized that November’s temperatures significantly exceeded those of previous years.
Additionally, this year is poised to be the first in which the average temperature surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, according to the report. The Paris Agreement, established in 2015, aims to limit human-induced warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), with a more ambitious target of keeping it below 1.5 degrees. Experts stress that adhering to the 1.5-degree limit is crucial for mitigating the most severe impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe extreme weather events. The principal driver of climate change is identified as the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas.
While the record temperatures do not indicate a breach of the Paris Agreement, they signify an urgent need for robust climate action according to Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess.
Francis expressed that these new temperature records carry dire implications for both human populations and ecosystems.
“The rapid pace of warming is outstripping the natural adaptation capabilities of plants and animals,” she explained. “This could lead to increased extinctions and disrupt the natural food chains. Agriculture might also suffer due to a decline in pollinators and the proliferation of pests.” Her warnings extend to coastal communities, which face significant risk from rising sea levels.
Experts believe that heat waves over oceans and the reduction of reflective sea ice and snow cover have likely contributed to this year’s temperature rise. Notably, the extent of Antarctic sea ice was 10% below average in November, marking a record low.
The oceans play a crucial role in climate change by absorbing about 90% of the heat retained by greenhouse gases, which they later release back into the atmosphere as heat and water vapor.
The unprecedented heat observed last year was partially attributed to an El Niño, a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by temporary warming in specific areas of the central Pacific that influences global weather patterns. However, after this event concluded earlier this year, the expected cooling phenomenon often referred to as La Niña did not occur, leaving researchers puzzled by the persistently high temperatures.
According to Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan, the absence of this cooling effect may lead to a more extended period of increased temperatures. “An El Niño tends to expel more heat into the atmosphere due to warmer ocean temperatures,” he noted. “Without the cooling effects we’ve relied on in the past to mitigate those spikes, we’re observing record increases, which is concerning.” He pointed out the alarming nature of this year’s significant temperature rise following another record jump.
