In a stunning turn of events, France’s far-right and left-wing lawmakers united on Wednesday to pass a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his Cabinet. This historic vote, spurred by fierce budget disputes, marks the first such ousting of a French government since 1962.
The National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament, approved the motion with 331 votes—well above the 288 needed to force Barnier’s resignation.
President Emmanuel Macron, whose term runs until 2027, must now appoint a new prime minister for the second time in less than six months after July’s elections left parliament deeply divided. Macron’s office announced he would address the nation on Thursday evening.
Barnier’s Short Tenure Comes to an End
Barnier, a conservative appointed in September, now holds the distinction of being the shortest-serving prime minister in France’s modern Republic.
“It has been an honor for me to serve France and the French with dignity,” Barnier said in his final address before the vote. He warned that the no-confidence motion would “make everything more serious and more difficult.”
A Fractured Parliament and Budget Battle
The no-confidence vote stemmed from opposition to Barnier’s proposed budget, which critics described as austere and out of touch with citizens’ needs. The National Assembly is fragmented among three major blocs: Macron’s centrist allies, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, and the far-right National Rally.
For this vote, the left and far-right blocs united against Barnier, a rare show of solidarity. Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, called the budget “toxic” and accused Macron of being “largely responsible for the current situation.” Meanwhile, hard-left lawmaker Eric Coquerel proposed an emergency tax law to prevent a shutdown and ensure temporary funding.
Macron Faces a Political Stalemate
Macron now faces the challenging task of appointing a new prime minister to navigate a divided parliament, which remains unchanged until at least July. While speculation about Macron resigning swirled, the president dismissed such ideas as “make-believe politics.”
“I’ve been elected twice by the French people,” Macron said during a recent trip to Saudi Arabia. “We must not scare people with such things. We have a strong economy.”
Economic and Market Implications
Though France is not at risk of a U.S.-style government shutdown, political instability could rattle financial markets. The European Union is pressuring France to address its ballooning debt, which is projected to hit 6% of GDP this year and could climb to 7% next year without intervention.
Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING Bank, warned that the uncertainty could dampen investment and growth. “The impact of France not having a government would clearly be negative for the growth of France and hence the Eurozone,” he said.
France’s borrowing costs have already risen, evoking memories of the Greek debt crisis. However, analysts note that France’s long-term debt structure and continued demand for its bonds provide a buffer against a similar crisis. The European Central Bank could also intervene if markets spiral out of control, though such action would require extreme circumstances.
What’s Next for Macron and France
Macron’s next steps will be crucial in stabilizing the government and reassuring both citizens and markets. His choice of a new prime minister and their ability to navigate a deeply divided parliament will determine the direction of France’s governance in the months to come.
