A ceasefire arrangement that could potentially conclude over a year of ongoing clashes between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah has garnered support from Israeli officials, sparking optimism and raising complex questions in a conflict-driven region.
Hezbollah leaders have also indicated cautious endorsement for the U.S.-mediated agreement, which provides an avenue for both parties to de-escalate tensions that have displaced upwards of 1.2 million individuals in Lebanon and 50,000 in Israel.
Reports from Lebanese officials cite an extensive bombing campaign by Israel that has resulted in more than 3,700 fatalities, predominantly among civilians.
Although the ceasefire, scheduled to commence early Wednesday, may significantly reduce tensions, it does not directly address the much more lethal conflict ongoing in Gaza, following the Hamas assault in southern Israel in October 2023, which claimed 1,200 lives.
In the wake of the Hamas strike, Hezbollah commenced a barrage of rockets toward Israel in solidarity with Hamas and has previously articulated its intention to continue military action until hostilities in Gaza are halted.
Here is an overview of the key aspects of this tentative ceasefire agreement and its potential consequences:
**Details of the Agreement**
The ceasefire deal is said to include a 60-day suspension of hostilities, mandating that Israeli forces withdraw to their side of the border while Hezbollah must cease its military presence in a broad area of southern Lebanon. President Biden announced that the agreement is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday (or 9 p.m. EST on Tuesday).
As part of the arrangement, thousands of Lebanese troops along with U.N. peacekeepers are expected to be deployed south of the Litani River. An international body, led by the U.S., will oversee adherence to the agreement by both parties. Biden characterized the deal as intended to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.
Israel has insisted on its right to retaliate should Hezbollah breach the terms of the agreement, a stipulation that Lebanese officials have refused to incorporate into the proposal. Israel’s Defense Minister asserted that military action would be taken against Hezbollah if the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, fails to enforce the terms effectively.
**Ongoing Doubts**
A Hezbollah official stated that the group’s support for the deal is contingent on assurances that Israel will not resume its assaults.
“Once we evaluate the agreement endorsed by the opposing government, we will assess whether there is alignment between our statements and the outcomes achieved by the Lebanese officials,” Mahmoud Qamati, deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council, conveyed to the Qatar-based Al Jazeera.
Qamati emphasized the desire to end the aggression, but not at the cost of Lebanon’s sovereignty.
The European Union’s leading diplomat, Josep Borrell, mentioned that the security concerns of Israel were also addressed in the agreement, which was additionally mediated by France.
**Current State of Affairs**
Following months of intense cross-border skirmishes, Israel can report significant accomplishments, including the deaths of Hezbollah’s prominent figures, including its top leader Hassan Nasrallah, as well as a notable destruction of militant resources.
An intricate assault in September, involving the sabotage of communication devices utilized by Hezbollah, is speculated to be linked to Israel, highlighting a deep penetration into the militant organization.
The considerable losses inflicted on Hezbollah not only impacted its ranks but also tarnished the reputation it built from its performance in the 2006 conflict against Israel. Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s fighters have managed to maintain strong resistance, impeding Israel’s progression while persisting in daily fire across the border.
This ceasefire could offer respite for both sides; it provides Israel’s stretched military with a necessary pause while allowing Hezbollah to showcase its resilience despite the technological superiority of Israeli forces.
However, the group is likely to face scrutiny from Lebanese citizens who may blame it for tethering their nation’s fate to the Gaza conflict in alignment with its key ally, Iran, further exacerbating an already struggling Lebanese economy.
**No Resolution for Gaza**
Thus far, Hezbollah has insisted that it would only suspend its attacks on Israel when a resolution is found for the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Some observers in the region may interpret an agreement between Israel and the Lebanese group as a retreat.
In Gaza, where officials have reported that over 44,000 Palestinians have died, the ongoing Israeli bombardment has dealt significant blows to Hamas, including the deaths of several top leaders. Nonetheless, Hamas operatives continue to hold numerous Israeli hostages, which could serve as leverage in potential negotiations for an indirect ceasefire.
Hamas is likely to continue to demand a lasting peace and a comprehensive withdrawal by Israel from Gaza. Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas underscored the entrenched nature of the conflict, calling for immediate international intervention.
“The only path to cease the dangerous escalation we are currently witnessing in the region, while ensuring regional and global stability and peace, is to address the Palestinian issue,” he stated in a speech to the U.N., communicated through his ambassador.
