Democrats in North Carolina faced another setback in their efforts to win a significant electoral victory over Republicans during the presidential election, yet they found hope in notable downballot successes. Despite Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris by over 3 percentage points, Democrats celebrated their wins in key races for governor, attorney general, and control of legislative seats in a state that has experienced Republican dominance in recent years.
The election results presented a silver lining for Democrats, particularly in a year where national outcomes were predominantly disappointing for the party. Voters in North Carolina demonstrated a tendency to split their tickets, which offered Democrats a glimmer of optimism for the future. Democratic Governor Roy Cooper expressed confidence in candidate quality and voter decisions, suggesting that North Carolinians rejected what he characterized as right-wing extremism.
Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate, successfully defeated Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, positioning himself to take over the governorship from Cooper, who was unable to seek re-election due to term limits. Stein’s campaign effectively leveraged substantial fundraising and targeted Robinson’s controversial remarks regarding abortion and LGBTQ+ matters through advertisements and social media.
The Democratic Party has notable momentum in North Carolina, having claimed victory in eight of the last nine gubernatorial races. Conversely, Republicans have consistently triumphed in 11 out of the last 12 presidential elections, with only Barack Obama’s win in 2008 interrupting their streak.
In the realm of attorney general, U.S. Representative Jeff Jackson continued the Democratic trend by defeating fellow Representative Dan Bishop. Democrats also managed to flip the lieutenant gubernatorial position and the role of state school superintendent, defeating a Republican candidate known for attending the January 6 rally in 2021 and labeling public schools as centers for liberal indoctrination.
State Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton, the youngest leader in the nation at age 26, acknowledged the positives while recognizing the challenges posed by Harris’s performance at the top of the ticket. “People keep calling this a bright spot,” she mentioned, “but we did lose the presidential race.”
Republicans, on the other hand, can take pride in Trump’s third consecutive statewide victory and the acquisition of three additional congressional seats due to redistricting efforts in 2023, allowing GOP officials to retain control of the U.S. House. Nonetheless, Democrats also made strides in the competitive congressional landscape as first-term Democratic Representative Don Davis won a closely contested race. Although the state Senate maintains a Republican veto-proof majority, Democrats may chip away at this in the House with only a narrow margin separating the parties.
Historically, ticket-splitting has been a common practice in North Carolina, as voters have shown comfort with Democratic candidates in statewide positions while remaining hesitant toward the more progressive factions of the national Democratic Party. Political scientists have noted this discrepancy, suggesting that dissatisfaction at the federal level does not entirely translate to a willingness for substantial changes at the state level.
Republican leaders maintain confidence in their party’s standing, citing their victories in five of ten statewide executive positions, control of the General Assembly, and a continuing trend of success in statewide appellate court races. However, a forthcoming state Supreme Court race could lead to a recount.
State Senate leader Phil Berger insisted that North Carolina remains a default Republican state, despite conversations suggesting it is a purple state. Critics within the GOP have highlighted missed opportunities during this election cycle, particularly attributing some setbacks to Mark Robinson’s candidacy. What had been anticipated as a tightly contested gubernatorial election ended up being a decisive win for Stein by nearly 15 points, largely made possible by his substantial spending advantages and reports about Robinson’s past inflammatory comments.
The fallout from Robinson’s candidacy has been considerable, leading to diminished support from the Republican Governors Association and distancing from prominent figures, including Trump. Politicians have expressed disappointment, noting that potential for a historic race was squandered, with some party insiders believing that Robinson’s controversial background hampered overall electoral success.
Looking ahead, political analysts highlight the 2026 elections as the next major test for North Carolina’s political landscape, particularly with Republican U.S. Senator Thom Tillis’s seat becoming available. Robinson has not excluded the possibility of running again, while Democrats are eyeing opportunities, including potential bids from Cooper and outgoing Democratic Representative Wiley Nickel.
Despite the work needed for Democrats to gain traction, observers note that the recent downballot wins offer a foundation to build upon. “Democrats have accomplishments to feel good about,” remarked a political science professor, underscoring the essential work ahead for the party in preparation for future elections. Chair Clayton stressed that immediate efforts must focus on recruiting candidates for upcoming municipal races and supporting existing incumbents to build a stronger local presence for upcoming electoral cycles. “We need to get back to the basics,” she concluded.
