Many Americans are increasingly frustrated with the rising cost of food and are turning to President-elect Donald Trump in hopes that he can help lower their grocery expenses. Throughout his campaign, Trump frequently criticized the surge in prices for various food items, including bacon, cereal, and crackers. During a visit to a grocery store in Pennsylvania in September, he assured shoppers, “We’ll get them down.”
However, the food price inflation that affected the U.S. and other regions worldwide from 2021 to 2022 stemmed from complex issues that are not easily resolved. Factors such as the pandemic, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and outbreaks of avian flu have all played a significant role. Many economists worry that Trump’s proposed measures, like imposing tariffs on imported food and deporting undocumented workers, could inadvertently lead to even higher food prices.
As of October, official data indicated that the prices for groceries in the U.S. had risen by 28% compared to 2019. While this rise peaked in 2022, the increase from October 2023 to October 2024 was only 2%, notably lower than the overall inflation rate. Nevertheless, the financial burden of shopping at the supermarket has left a mark on the electorate, with around 70% of voters expressing substantial concern over grocery costs, as reported in a recent survey of over 120,000 voters. This included 70% of female voters and 63% of male voters; only 10% indicated they were not significantly concerned.
Trump performed well among those who reported high levels of concern about food prices, garnering support from nearly 60% of this group. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris received support from 40% of these voters. Harris, however, had a stronger appeal among those who were somewhat or less concerned about grocery costs.
During a town hall in Michigan, Trump outlined his strategy to reduce grocery prices, citing tariffs that would benefit U.S. farmers. He proposed a 60% tariff on goods produced in China, along with a “universal” tariff of 10% to 20% on all other foreign imports. There have been instances where he alluded to even steeper tariffs.
Trump claimed U.S. farmers were suffering as a result of excessive imports of agricultural products. Data from 2021 noted that the U.S. imported 60% of its fresh fruits, 38% of fresh vegetables (excluding potatoes and mushrooms), and 10% of its beef, as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
He stated, “We’re going to have to be a little bit like other countries. We’re not going to allow so much to come in. We’re going to let our farmers go to work.” However, David Ortega, a food economics and policy professor at Michigan State University, explained that many food producers depend on imported goods, including fertilizers and packaging materials. An increase in their costs could lead to higher prices for consumers. Ortega also pointed out that U.S. farmers might face challenges in international markets if other countries retaliated with their tariffs, given that approximately 20% of U.S. agricultural products are exported annually.
The American Farm Bureau did not respond to inquiries, and the Consumer Brands Association, representing major food and personal care companies, highlighted its members’ reliance on ingredients sourced outside the U.S., such as coffee and bananas. Tom Madrecki, the vice president of campaigns and special projects for the association, remarked, “There is a fundamental disconnect between a stated goal of reducing grocery prices and tariff policy that only stands to increase those costs.”
Ortega also raised concerns that Trump’s immigration policies could further inflate grocery prices, noting the over two million undocumented workers involved in the U.S. food industry, including approximately 1 million on farms, 750,000 in restaurants, and 200,000 in production facilities.
Trump suggested that lowering energy costs through increased oil and gas production would help reduce food prices. He stated, “If you make doughnuts, if you make cars, whatever you make, energy is a big deal,” expressing his intent to cut energy bills significantly within a year.
Despite this assertion, energy costs only account for a small fraction of food production expenses. According to the USDA, in 2022, nearly 4 cents of every dollar spent on food went toward energy. Other costs, such as farming and food processing, accounted for 8 and 14 cents, respectively. Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, noted that while energy prices are essential, they have already decreased considerably over the past year. He added, “I think it would be difficult for the Trump administration to have much impact on energy prices in the short run.”
When asked about additional plans to lower grocery prices apart from energy and tariffs, a spokesperson from Trump’s transition team did not provide further specifics. However, Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump had received a mandate from voters to fulfill his campaign promises.
Many voters remain hopeful that political leaders will successfully address grocery prices. According to the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey, 74% of Republicans and 62% of Democrats believe that their respective political leaders can bring down food costs. This survey, conducted by the University of Illinois and Purdue University, reached 1,000 consumers in August.
Jordan Voigt, a 34-year-old single parent from North Carolina, shared that the rising prices of fuel and groceries prompted her to move back in with her parents. Voigt expressed that she voted for Trump partly because of his business background, believing he is capable of lowering prices. “He doesn’t just say, ‘Oh, this is how much this is costing, the American people have to take it.’ I appreciate that,” she noted, adding that Trump challenges higher costs instead of accepting them.
Nevertheless, Ortega and several other economists contend that there is limited potential for presidential intervention to reduce grocery prices in the short term. Lasting price reductions generally occur during prolonged economic downturns. Ortega remarked, “People want grocery prices to get down to pre-COVID levels, and that’s just not going to happen.” Meanwhile, Maria Kalaitzandonakes, an agricultural and consumer economics professor at the University of Illinois, concurred that while immediate reductions in food prices are unlikely, the government could promote policies that support long-term strategies for managing food price inflation, such as improving competition and investing in agricultural technologies.
Kalaitzandonakes emphasized, “Lowering food prices is not great. What we should concentrate on is ensuring that incomes keep pace with expenses rather than simply expecting grocery bills to decline.”
