Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election has shaken the political landscape.
With a historic win in the Electoral College and a popular vote victory, Trump now holds a powerful mandate and control in Washington. Here’s a closer look at the factors behind this seismic shift.
1. The Issue Landscape Favored Republicans from the Start
For years, economic concerns and high border crossings left voters dissatisfied. Despite some economic gains, Americans felt squeezed by rising costs, unaffordable housing, and high-interest rates. Many blamed the Biden administration, with Vice President Harris unable to distance herself from the criticisms. Exit polls revealed voters trusted Trump more on issues from the economy to immigration, crime, and even foreign policy.
2. Rising Share of White Voters Benefited Trump
White voters increased as a share of the electorate from 67% to 71%, reversing a decades-long trend of decline. This shift, driven by demographic dynamics and voting patterns, played a significant role in boosting Trump’s support, even as the overall U.S. population continues to diversify.
3. Trump’s Coalition Grows, Fueled by Men
Trump’s appeal among Latino men led him to win an unprecedented 46% of the Latino vote. Harris held the advantage with Latina women, but Trump’s overall gains with Latino and younger male voters helped broaden his base, with men across all age groups leaning his way.
4. Higher Female Turnout Wasn’t Enough for Harris
Although women made up 53% of the electorate, Harris’s support among women fell short of Biden’s 2020 numbers. Trump’s dominance among white, non-college-educated women and men offset Harris’s gains with college-educated white women.
5. America’s Readiness for a Woman President Remains Uncertain
Harris faced skepticism, especially from men, about her policy sincerity. This may have impacted perceptions of her as a candidate and could raise questions about America’s acceptance of women in the highest office.
6. Ticket-Splitting Helped Some Democrats, But Not Enough
While Democratic Senate candidates outperformed Harris in several key races, it wasn’t sufficient to stave off a GOP wave. Republicans made notable gains, with Harris’s lack of coattail effect evident in close contests across the country.
7. Democratic Voter Turnout Lagged
Harris’s vote count lagged significantly behind Biden’s 2020 total. Her most dramatic drops were in blue states like New York and Massachusetts. In contrast, Trump’s voter support surged nationwide, adding to his advantage.
8. Polls Once Again Underestimated Trump’s Support
While polling showed Harris slightly ahead, Trump’s actual support outperformed expectations. The late-breaking support for Trump and swing state advantages ultimately tipped the scales in his favor.
9. Democrats Face a Moment of Reckoning
As the Democratic Party assesses its future, the loss of working-class and rural voters is a pressing concern. Trump’s success with middle-class voters who once supported Democrats signals a shift in American politics, pushing the Democratic Party toward a wealthier, more educated base that may struggle to win majorities on its own.
In the aftermath of this unexpected election outcome, both parties are left to reconsider their strategies, alliances, and the issues that resonate with an ever-evolving electorate.
