HARRISBURG, Pa. — This week, Republicans scored significant achievements in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state. They secured the coveted presidential electoral votes, increased their representation in the U.S. House with a two-seat gain, and won all four statewide offices up for election, which notably included a U.S. Senate seat.
This win marks Donald Trump’s second success in Pennsylvania after previously losing in 2020, following a streak of six consecutive presidential election defeats for the Republican Party in the state. A similar trend was noted in other Rust Belt states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump also experienced victories. However, Democrats managed to narrowly retain crucial Senate seats in Wisconsin and Michigan, leading to varied outcomes in these states.
In Pennsylvania, Republican gains were particularly striking, as voters expressed growing discontent with the existing political landscape, a sentiment that seemed to favor the GOP. The economic climate played a pivotal role in shaping voters’ attitudes, with many expressing concerns over their financial stability.
According to a recent nationwide survey, a third of voters believed their families were “falling behind” economically, a notable increase from 2020. At that time, only about 20% of voters had felt similarly. In a shift from the previous election, around two-thirds of those who felt financially strained this year supported Trump, contrasting with the majority that backed President Joe Biden in 2020.
Berwood Yost, the director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, noted the challenges facing Democrats among swing voters. With inflation impacting personal finances negatively, many voters seemed to direct their frustrations towards the Biden administration. Although Vice President Kamala Harris ran a vigorous campaign, she struggled to overcome these prevailing headwinds.
Yost remarked, “The mood of the electorate was so negative that they took it out on the incumbent party.” Additionally, many voters’ perceptions of Trump appeared to have improved over time. Only 40% of Pennsylvania voters approved of Biden’s performance, whereas Trump’s approval rating was at 54%, up from 49% four years prior.
In the contest with Harris, Trump secured victory in Pennsylvania by approximately 2%, with ballots still being counted. This margin was three times wider than his win in 2016, although he had lost by over 1% to Biden in 2020. Similar trends were seen in Wisconsin, where Trump won by a narrow margin of less than one percent, echoing his success from 2016 after a slight loss in 2020. Trump’s win in Michigan was more pronounced, with about 80,000 votes in his favor, significantly outpacing his previous victories.
Across Pennsylvania, Trump made gains even in traditionally Democratic regions, including Philadelphia and its densely populated suburbs. His support in rural and suburban areas also surged, enabling Republican candidate David McCormick to defeat three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey. This marked a significant shift in the state’s congressional delegation from 9-8 in favor of Democrats to a 10-7 Republican majority, enhancing the GOP’s position as they strive to retain control of the House.
For the first time since 1980, Republicans will oversee all three statewide row offices, including treasurer, auditor general, and attorney general. Legislative positions remained relatively unchanged, with Republicans poised to hold their state Senate majority while seeking to regain control of the Democrat-held state House. This shift could place Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, a vice-presidential finalist under Harris, under increased pressure to collaborate with Republican lawmakers.
Trump’s frequent visits to Pennsylvania, where he campaigned alongside down-ballot candidates, played a significant role in these victories. Following an assassination attempt in western Pennsylvania, Trump returned to the area for a rally, engaging with audiences across diverse communities including conservative rural towns, minority-heavy urban centers, and rapidly growing Latino-populated cities. He appeared to gain modest support shifts from historically Democratic voters in these areas, even though a majority of Black and Latino voters continued to back Harris.
Former state GOP chairman Rob Gleason recalled advising Trump in 2015 to connect with Pennsylvanians through regular visits, emphasizing the importance of voter engagement.
In comparison to Wisconsin and Michigan, where Republicans also saw some gains, Democrats had better overall results in Wisconsin despite Trump’s victory. While Trump decreased Democratic margins in key areas around Milwaukee and Madison, the Democrats benefited from newly drawn legislative maps that helped preserve some of their representation.
In Michigan, while Harris secured Wayne County, which includes Detroit, her margin was much slimmer than Biden’s in the previous election. Trump expanded his margins in suburban counties such as Macomb and Oakland. The Democrats suffered setbacks, losing both the House seat vacated by Senator Slotkin and their state House majority after a two-year stint of legislative control focused on pivotal issues such as gun safety and reproductive rights.
Republicans attributed their success to Trump’s advocacy for early voting and a focus on key issues like inflation and immigration. Speculation arose among Democrats about potential missed opportunities, such as the choice of Harris over a more regionally advantageous running mate like Shapiro and whether Biden’s presence could have altered their fortunes.
Some Democrats expressed concerns that Harris failed to resonate with specific voter demographics, particularly young white men, a sentiment echoed by local officials. “That bravado talk, that tough talk, people like that,” remarked Larry Maggi, a Democratic county commissioner, highlighting how Trump’s straightforward approach resonated with many voters.
In summary, the shifting dynamics in states like Pennsylvania indicate a complex landscape as Republicans capitalize on voter dissatisfaction, paving the way for a potentially transformative political climate heading into future elections.
