Professor Allan Lichtman, celebrated for accurately predicting nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections since 1984, faced a rare and humbling defeat when Donald Trump won the 2024 election. Known as the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,” Lichtman confidently projected a Kamala Harris win, but Trump’s victory defied his famous “13 Keys” model, leaving him shocked and visibly frustrated on his live-streamed reaction.
A shocking defeat for Lichtman’s prediction model
Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House” model evaluates factors such as incumbency, charisma, and foreign policy successes to forecast election outcomes. Believing Harris held enough of these keys to win, Lichtman repeatedly assured his followers of her impending victory. Yet, as Trump carried swing states and won broader demographic support than anticipated, Lichtman’s confidence crumbled. “What? That’s not possible,” he exclaimed, stunned by Trump’s appeal to Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania, a key state.
Reaction from a shaken forecaster
Throughout his live stream, Lichtman expressed bewilderment and disappointment, occasionally holding his head in his hands. His son, also present, appeared equally surprised. Lichtman joked about canceling upcoming interviews, admitting, “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow.” Reflecting on Trump’s age, he suggested that Trump might even pass the presidency to a successor mid-term, a theory met with skepticism by viewers.
Reflection on American democracy
Following his rare miscalculation, Lichtman shared concerns about the broader future of American democracy, remarking, “Democracy is precious, but like all precious things, it can be destroyed.” Despite the upset, he acknowledged the outpouring of supportive messages from his audience, saying he felt heartened by the encouragement to continue his election forecasts—albeit with a fresh perspective after this historic miss.
