NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 25: Nate Silver speaks at "On The Fault Lines: Decision 2018" Midterm Election Panel on October 25, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Krista Kennell/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images)
Nate Silver’s final election prediction: Race tighter than ever
With hours to go before polls close, top pollster Nate Silver has released his final prediction for the 2024 election, describing the race as “literally closer than a coin flip.” After running 80,000 simulations, Silver’s model shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a slim margin of just 0.03%, with Harris winning 50.015% of the simulations compared to Trump’s 49.985%.
A nail-biting race
The contest is expected to be one of the closest in U.S. history, with critical battleground states—Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and others—set to decide the outcome. Despite Harris’ slight lead in the national polling average, Trump holds stronger positions in several key states, including Georgia and Arizona, although he trails in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Key voter trends
FILE PHOTO (EDITORS NOTE: COMPOSITE OF IMAGES – Image numbers 2182486398, 2168330769) In this composite image, Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (L) and Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump.
***LEFT IMAGE*** CHUTE, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 01: Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters during a campaign event at Little Chute High School on November 1, 2024 in Little Chute, Wisconsin. The event is one of three Harris has scheduled today in the swing state where she is in a tight race with her opponent Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images).
***RIGHT IMAGE*** POTTERVILLE, MICHIGAN – AUGUST 29: Former U.S. President and current Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks about the economy, inflation, and manufacturing during a campaign event at Alro Steel on August 29, 2024 in Potterville, Michigan. Michigan is considered a key battleground state in the upcoming November Presidential election. (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)
Harris’ increasing support among male voters, who previously favored Trump, could pose a challenge for the former president. However, betting markets have shown a shift in favor of Trump, with some forecasting a 10% lead for him in terms of winning the election.
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