WASHINGTON — A key question that will dominate election night discussions is: Who emerged victorious?
The Associated Press (AP) is prepared to address this question, providing answers for approximately 5,000 races that are contested across the United States. This includes everything from the presidential race and state ballot measures to various local positions.
With a history spanning over 170 years, the AP has been compiling voting results and declaring winners in elections, effectively bridging the potential information gap that could extend up to a month between Election Day and the official verification of results.
So, how does the AP determine who has won? The process involves meticulous analysis of contemporary vote counts alongside a wide array of election-related data. The central aim is to answer a pivotal question: Is there any scenario where the candidate currently trailing could potentially catch up? If the answer indicates no possibility, it confirms that the leading candidate is the victor.
Assessing the Vote
Decisions regarding race outcomes rely on clear evidence, primarily derived from the AP’s own vote count, which is gathered from state and local election offices across the country.
As ballots are tabulated beginning on election night, the AP closely monitors ongoing vote counts at the county level, evaluating who is currently leading and identifying where the votes originate.
Simultaneously, the AP seeks to ascertain how many votes remain uncounted and from which specific regions. It often takes time for state and local election officials to have a complete understanding of total ballots cast in each election contest. This situation is further complicated by the increased reliance on mail-in ballots, which may still arrive even after Election Day, set for November 5 this year.
Consequently, there usually is no available official tallies of the outstanding vote immediately after counting begins. To manage this, the AP provides estimated turnout figures for all races based on various metrics and utilizes these estimates to monitor the proportion of votes counted against those remaining.
Furthermore, the AP attempts to categorize how the counted ballots were cast, distinguishing between mail-in votes and those cast in person on Election Day. This classification is essential since voting methods often correlate with voting preferences; for instance, during the 2020 elections, mail-in ballots were predominantly cast by Democratic voters, while Republicans favored in-person voting on Election Day.
In several states, historical data allows analysts to predict which vote types will be counted first, based on past trends or official announcements from election agencies. In contrast, certain states may clearly categorize counted votes by type in real-time.
This information aids in assessing whether an early lead is likely to diminish or widen. For instance, if a state opts to count in-person votes first, it may suggest that an early Republican lead could diminish as mail ballots are counted. Conversely, if mail ballots are processed initially, an early Republican lead may indicate a solid victory for that candidate.
Interpreting Election Data
The AP’s methods for determining winners are also heavily influenced by historical voting trends within a specific area. Established voting patterns demonstrate that regions with consistent Republican or Democratic wins typically continue to observe similar trends in subsequent elections.
Even in closely contested situations, analyzing current voting behaviors against historical data can yield significant insights. For example, if a Democratic candidate shows improved performance in all reported counties of a previously narrowly won state, this could forecast a more substantial victory for the Democrats. On the other hand, if the Republican candidate shows stronger numbers, it may indicate a tightly contested race or a potential upset.
In areas where significant shifts in voting patterns diverge markedly from statewide trends, these changes usually develop over multiple election cycles, helping analysts discern whether a candidate’s lead is expected or indicative of a competitive race. Additionally, understanding the demographics of remaining uncounted ballots can further clarify potential outcomes.
AP VoteCast Usage
A valuable resource for the AP’s decision-making squads is AP VoteCast, an extensive 50-state election survey that offers an in-depth view of voter demographics and sentiment during elections. Data from this tool can facilitate calls for non-competitive races as polls close or shortly thereafter.
When assessing potential outcomes right after polls close, the AP will only declare a winner if AP VoteCast aligns with expected results based on historical voting trends and other pre-election data.
Timing for Declaring Race Outcomes
It’s important to note that races can often be called even before all votes are tallied. The AP’s team of election specialists and analysts will declare a race winner as soon as it is possible to identify a clear victor, guided by their methodology based on factual analysis rather than speculation.
Calls made by the AP are definitive declarations grounded in evidential analysis, confirming that one candidate has emerged as the winner, with no chance for opponents to overturn that result regardless of when all votes are counted.
Reasons for Delaying Calls
The AP may refrain from declaring a winner if election data suggests an unexpected outcome. If a candidate shows a substantial lead, yet historical data hints at a different anticipated result, the AP will approach the election tallies with caution before making a final judgment.
In closely contested races, analysts might require additional time to verify how many ballots remain. If there’s no conclusive leader even after most ballots have been counted, the race may be labeled “too close to call.”
Close races that are still actively counting, especially in jurisdictions that tally a large number of votes post-election night, are viewed as “too early to call,” a term distinct from “too close to call.”
Notably, the AP will typically avoid declaring a winner if the margin between the leading candidates is less than 0.5 percentage points unless the lead is substantial enough to suggest no reversal in a recount.
What Doesn’t Influence Outcomes
AP race declarations are made without regard to pressure from political campaigns, political party influence, announcements made by rival news outfits, or victory speeches from candidates. A concession speech might ultimately provide confirmation that a recount is unnecessary, but it is never the sole reason for declaring a winner.
