Human-induced climate change has led to a significant increase in rainfall in Spain, making it approximately 12% heavier and increasing the probability of extreme storms like the recent devastating deluge in Valencia, according to a preliminary analysis by a collective of international scientists known as World Weather Attribution. This research focuses on understanding how global warming contributes to extreme weather phenomena.
The catastrophic flash floods in Spain have resulted in at least 158 fatalities, with the majority—155 deaths—occurring in the eastern region of Valencia. The situation remains dire as search and rescue operations continue, with many individuals still unaccounted for. Efforts to locate victims have involved combing through stranded vehicles and flooded buildings.
World Weather Attribution has indicated that the likely cause of the severe rainstorms experienced in southern Spain is climate change. A warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, resulting in more intense precipitation events. The researchers clarified that their findings do not represent a comprehensive attribution study, as they did not employ climate models to recreate scenarios absent of human-induced warming.
The scientists analyzed historical rainfall data to demonstrate that instances of heavy rainfall within a single day are on the rise in this region, driven by emissions from fossil fuel combustion contributing to global temperature increases. “While we are still working to conduct a thorough attribution study regarding the recent flooding in Spain, our preliminary examination of rainfall observations indicates that similar extreme events have become around 12% more intense and are likely twice as probable as they would have been in a pre-industrial climate with temperatures 1.3 degrees Celsius cooler,” explained Clair Barnes, an expert at World Weather Attribution.
Barnes also commented, “People have mentioned that this may be the new normal. Given our current trajectory of around 2.6 degrees Celsius in warming within this century, we have only reached the halfway point toward what that new normal might entail.”
The planet has already warmed approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) since the mid-1800s, surpassing previous estimates that stood at around 1.1 or 1.2 degrees due to the inclusion of the unprecedented heat recorded last year. This information is derived from the recent annual Emissions Gap Report published by the United Nations Environment Programme.
If the current trend continues, the world could experience a temperature rise of 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels. However, if countries adhere to the commitments made in their targets submitted to the U.N., this increase could be constrained to 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the report.
Ben Clarke, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, highlighted another urgent climate event that occurred concurrently: a powerful typhoon striking Taiwan shortly after the flooding in Spain. “These successive incidents illustrate the already perilous implications of climate change at just 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming,” Clarke noted in his remarks.
