In a bombshell development, Republican Donald Trump has now overtaken his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, in the widely respected RealClearPolitics polling averages.
Slim Lead in RealClearPolitics “Poll of Polls”
As of Sunday morning, Trump has captured the lead in the RealClearPolitics “Poll of Polls” calculation, securing the slimmest of margins at just 0.1 percentage points. This shift follows three recent polls that showed a complete tie between Harris and Trump, with a new Wall Street Journal poll putting the former president three points ahead.
Trump’s First Lead Since August
This is Trump’s first lead in the national polling averages since August 4th. Harris previously enjoyed her largest margin of around two percentage points in late September, but recent trends have political analysts warning the Harris camp to prepare for an increasingly competitive race.
Battleground States Could Decide the Election
Experts point out that Harris may need a decisive lead in national polls to secure the win, as the election’s outcome will likely hinge on seven battleground states, where Republicans often hold an edge despite Democratic success in the popular vote.
Historical Comparison Raises Alarms
The Harris campaign may be particularly wary given historical comparisons: just over a week before Election Day in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.6 points in polling averages yet ultimately lost. In 2020, Biden held a 7.4-point advantage over Trump and still only narrowly emerged victorious, underscoring the tightrope candidates walk in these final days.
